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9月降息稳了?美财长:可能从50个基点开始
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun·2025-08-13 23:57

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the market is fully pricing in the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month, with a significant possibility of a 50 basis point reduction due to weak employment data [2][3] - The probability of a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting has risen to nearly 100%, with expectations for a total reduction of 75 basis points this year exceeding 50% [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra suggests that the current monetary policy is overly restrictive, advocating for a reduction of 150 to 175 basis points, which aligns with the Federal Reserve's neutral rate [3] Group 2 - Market focus is shifting to the upcoming retail sales data, which is expected to show a 0.5% month-on-month increase for July, reflecting changes in the labor market [4] - The list of potential successors for Federal Reserve Chair Powell has expanded to 11 candidates, indicating ongoing considerations for leadership changes within the Federal Reserve [5][6] - Some Federal Reserve policymakers are leaning towards a more dovish stance, with discussions around the possibility of multiple rate cuts this year, although caution remains among others regarding inflation targets [6][7]