美联储降息概率100%？纳指、标普500、比特币，创历史新高！

Market Performance - On August 13, US stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up by 1.04%, S&P 500 up by 0.32%, and Nasdaq up by 0.14%, marking new historical closing highs for Nasdaq and S&P 500 [1] - The current values for the indices are as follows: Dow Jones at 44,922.27, Nasdaq at 21,713.14, and S&P 500 at 6,466.58 [2] Chinese Tech Stocks - The Wande Chinese Tech Leaders Index increased by over 4%, while the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by over 2% [2] - Notable stock performances include Niu Technologies up over 17%, Pony.ai up over 7%, and Alibaba, Baidu, and Li Auto each rising nearly 4% [2] Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations indicate a 100% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the September meeting, as reflected in the interest rate swap data [3] - The overnight index swap (OIS) contracts fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting [4] US Government Debt - The US federal government debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with interest payments exceeding defense spending [6] - The current high-interest environment combined with substantial debt raises concerns about the effectiveness of potential rate cuts in alleviating fiscal deficits [6] Political Pressure on Federal Reserve - President Trump has reiterated calls for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, citing the significant interest payments on government debt [7] - Trump highlighted that every 1% increase in interest rates costs the government an additional $360 billion in interest payments [7]