Core Insights - The express delivery industry is facing a triple crisis, with growth primarily driven by order splitting rather than value increase, and low-cost e-commerce losing its rapid growth potential [1] - The rise of instant retail by 2025 is expected to impact consumer habits and take away growth space from e-commerce and express delivery [1] Industry Overview - The express delivery market's growth rate has declined, with Q1 2025 showing a year-on-year growth of 21.6%, dropping to 19.3% in the first half of 2025, compared to 21.5% in 2024 [1] - The express delivery industry has experienced significant growth since the early 2000s, with a compound annual growth rate of nearly 50% from 2006 to 2021, but growth slowed to 2.1% in 2022 due to market transformations [4][5] Impact of Instant Retail - Instant retail is expected to explode in 2025, with major platforms like JD.com and Meituan launching aggressive subsidy campaigns to capture market share [5][6] - The combined daily order volume of major platforms could reach 200 million, with total business volume projected to reach hundreds of billions of orders and a GMV of over one trillion [6] Competitive Landscape - The most affected companies in the express delivery sector may not be the traditional e-commerce-focused firms but rather high-end logistics providers like JD Logistics, which cater to premium products [8] - The competition between instant retail and traditional express delivery is intensifying, with companies like Meituan and JD.com vying for dominance in the market [9] Future Outlook - The market consensus suggests that instant retail service providers will benefit in the short term, while traditional express delivery companies must adapt to the evolving landscape [12] - The instant retail market is projected to reach 2 trillion yuan by 2030, with potential growth to 3-4 trillion yuan in the long term [12] Operational Challenges - The express delivery industry is entering a phase of efficiency and service competition, necessitating upgrades in operational models and resource utilization [13] - Companies that fail to innovate and adapt to the new market dynamics may face significant risks before the full impact of instant retail is realized [13]