焦煤期货狂飙现货却现分歧，钢厂采购趋于谨慎，大商所出手稳市

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in coking coal futures has led to significant price fluctuations, with a notable increase of 45% from July 4 to August 13, 2023, despite a mixed response in the spot market due to delayed price increases from steel mills [4][5][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Coking coal futures reached a peak of 1328 CNY/ton on August 13, 2023, following a recovery from a significant drop on July 28 [3][4]. - The market sentiment has been influenced by regulatory measures aimed at limiting overproduction in the coal sector, with some coal mines adopting a 276-day production schedule [4][11]. - The operating rate of domestic coal enterprises was approximately 85.5% as of August 8, 2023, translating to a supply of around 121.7 million tons per day, which is about 50,000 tons per day lower than the peak in May [5][6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The import of Mongolian coal has seen a decline, with the daily traffic at the Ganqimaodu port dropping from over 1300 trucks to below 1000 trucks due to reduced mining capacity [5][6]. - Coking coal prices have shown a significant increase, with premium coking coal in the Liulin area rising from 990 CNY/ton in early July to approximately 1310 CNY/ton, marking a 32% increase [6][8]. - The demand from steel mills has not kept pace with the rising futures prices, leading to a cautious approach in procurement as inventory levels have increased [9][11]. Group 3: Regulatory Measures - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has implemented risk control measures, including limits on daily opening positions for coking coal futures contracts, to stabilize market operations [10]. - The adjustments in trading limits and fees are typical responses to excessive trading activity in a single commodity, aimed at ensuring market stability [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The supply side is expected to face further reductions due to planned production cuts in the Beijing-Tianjin region, particularly around important meetings in mid to late August [5][11]. - The market is anticipated to shift focus post-September to the long-term impacts of overproduction checks and potential adjustments in import levels, which could affect the supply-demand balance [11].