黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.8.14）

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, stabilizing around 3342 before rising to a peak of 3370/3371, then retreating to a low of 3350 before rebounding to close at 3359, forming a small bullish candle on the daily chart [1] Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Supporting Factors: U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggested a potential 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, leading to a consensus in the market that weakened the U.S. dollar index (down 0.28% to a two-week low of 97.61) and reduced U.S. Treasury yields (10-year down 5.3 basis points to 4.24%, 2-year down 4.2 basis points to 3.689%), lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold, thus supporting its price. Additionally, July CPI data showed moderate inflation, and weak non-farm employment data further supported the case for a rate cut, which is favorable for gold [2] - Suppressing Factors: U.S. stock markets reached new highs (S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices set closing records for the second consecutive day, Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.04%, and Russell 2000 index increased nearly 2%), along with a potential easing of geopolitical tensions (Trump's upcoming meeting with Putin to discuss the Ukraine war and a 90-day extension of the U.S.-China tariff truce), which somewhat dampened gold's safe-haven demand [2] - Today's Focus: The U.S. will release initial jobless claims for the week ending August 9 and July PPI data at 20:30 [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Daily Level: Following a significant drop on Monday, gold saw a corrective rebound on Tuesday and Wednesday, forming a small bullish candle. This rebound is viewed as a temporary correction rather than a trend reversal, indicating a brief balance between bullish and bearish forces after a sharp decline. The 5-day moving average is trending downward, suggesting continued short-term downward pressure on gold, while the 10-day moving average remains upward, indicating that the previous upward trend is not entirely broken. The formation of a death cross signals increased market uncertainty [3] - Four-Hour Level: Without a strong breakout above 3409, the expectation is for a C-3-3 wave decline. The focus is on the Tuesday low of 3331; as long as this level holds, a second wave of the C-3-3 rebound is possible. Recent price action aligns with this expectation, successfully executing two long trades [5] - Today's Market Outlook: Attention is on gold's rebound potential, with resistance levels at 3379/3380 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the drop to 3331) and 3392/3393 (the 0.786 Fibonacci level). Key support levels include the recent low of 3350 and the previous low of 3342, with 3331 being critical for determining if the market enters a C-3-3 third wave decline, which could lead to further downward movement if breached [6]