营收增速同比接近“腰斩” 贵州茅台上半年业绩增长回到个位数

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's performance in the first half of 2025 shows stable growth, but the growth rate has significantly slowed compared to previous years, indicating a potential shift from high growth to high dividend attributes [1][7]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Guizhou Moutai achieved total revenue of approximately 911 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, and a net profit of 454 billion yuan, up 8.89% [2][5]. - The revenue and net profit growth rates have decreased significantly compared to the previous year, where the growth rates were 17.76% and 15.88%, respectively [2][3]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities saw a substantial decline of nearly 65%, amounting to 131.2 billion yuan [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company's operating costs increased by over 15% year-on-year, leading to a slight decrease in gross margin, which was 91.3%, down 0.46 percentage points [3][4]. - The revenue from series liquor grew only 4.7%, which is below the overall revenue growth rate, while Moutai liquor revenue increased by over 10.2% [3]. Future Outlook - Guizhou Moutai aims for a revenue growth of around 9% for the year and plans to invest 47.11 billion yuan in fixed assets [4]. - Analysts suggest that the company may still meet its targets in the second half of the year, despite potential downward pressure on terminal prices [7]. Dividend and Investment Perspective - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with a dividend yield close to 4%, surpassing some bank stocks [7]. - The market perceives a shift in Moutai's investment attributes from high growth to high dividends, with a current dividend yield of approximately 3.63% [7][8]. - The stock price around 1400 yuan reflects a price-to-earnings ratio of about 20 times, which some analysts consider expensive given the slowing growth [8].