TENCENT(HK:00700) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-14 01:43Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a rally influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, particularly benefiting the technology sector and related ETFs [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 13, 2025, all three major Hong Kong stock indices rose, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159262) increasing by 3.66% [1]. - Since its launch on July 7, 2025, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF has accumulated a total increase of 14.78% [1]. - The ETF recorded a turnover rate of 11.44% and a total trading volume of 350 million yuan, indicating active market participation [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - As of August 12, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng Stock Connect Technology Index (HSSCITI) accounted for 73.55% of the index, including major players like Kuaishou-W, SMIC, Tencent, Alibaba-W, and Xiaomi [2]. - Notably, the combined weight of AI leaders Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Tencent is nearly 30%, alongside core "hard tech" stocks like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor, forming a concentrated group of technology leaders [2]. Group 3: Company Financials - Tencent Holdings reported a revenue of 184.5 billion yuan for Q2, 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15%, with operating profit increasing by 18% to 69.25 billion yuan [3]. - Tencent's R&D expenditure rose by 17% to 20.25 billion yuan, while capital expenditure surged by 119% to 19.11 billion yuan, reflecting a strong commitment to AI strategy [3]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - As of July 2025, the broad money supply (M2) in China was 329.94 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, up by 5.6% [3]. - The narrowing "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 suggests improved policy transmission efficiency and increasing corporate liquidity demand, indicating a gradual recovery in investment sentiment [3]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The current AH premium index has fallen to around 125%, close to historical lows, suggesting high allocation value for Hong Kong stocks, especially in the context of a domestic "asset shortage" [4]. - The Hong Kong technology sector is viewed as having long-term investment value, with leading companies possessing strong competitive advantages and a significant valuation recovery potential [4]. - As of August 13, 2025, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF reached a new high in scale, surpassing 3 billion yuan, and has seen a net inflow of 315 million yuan over the past four days [4].