大摩闭门会：中国 AI 云发展趋势展望&腾讯、阿里业绩解读 260320 发言人 00:28 在今天这场视频直播里，我会先和大家分享我们周二发布的一个关于中国云市场的深度报告。随后我的 同事周恩会对前两天刚刚发布的腾讯和阿里巴巴的业绩做进一步的解读和讨论。会议过程中，欢迎大家 随时在屏幕左侧提问框里发送问题，我们会在 QNA 的环节中集中回答。 发言人 00:53 我们先从中国云市场的报告说起。在周二这篇报告里，我们主要围绕着三个主题做了深度研究。第一， 我们认为中国云的 AI 云的市场正处于一个非常早期的增长阶段。爱丽丝测算 2024 到 2029 年，这个 市场大概有 72%的年复合增长率，到 2029 年规模有望超过 2000 亿人民币。背后的核心驱动力主要 来自 token 的消耗量和爆发。以深圳是 AI 在云体系的快速渗透。第二从竞争格局来看，我们认为阿里 和字节跳动很可能是 AI 时代的两大核心赢家。原因说到底就三个维度，算力的供给能力，全站的 AI 服 务能力，以及面向企业的服务和交付能力。 发言人 01:35 第三页是我们这篇报告中最重要的观点，我们认为云市场可能正在进入过去 20 年以来第一 ...

2026 年 03 月 22 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 相关报告 《腾讯控股（0700.HK）2025Q4 财报前瞻：核心 业务稳健，关注微信 AI 进展（买入）*社交Ⅱ*陈梦 竹，尹芮》——2026-01-18 《腾讯控股（0700.HK）2025Q3 财报点评：游戏 及广告延续强劲趋势，AI 持续赋能主业（买入）* 社交Ⅱ*陈梦竹，尹芮》——2025-11-16 《腾讯控股（0700.HK）2025Q3 财报前瞻：广告 强劲，游戏增长势能充足，云业务有望加速（买入） *社交Ⅱ*陈梦竹，尹芮》——2025-10-14 《腾讯控股（0700.HK）2025Q2 财报点评：游戏 广告延续强劲趋势，FBS 重回双位数同比增长（买 事件: 2026 年 3 月 18 日公司公告 2025Q4 财报，2025Q4 实现营收 1944 亿元 （yoy+13%, qoq+0.8%），营业利润 603 亿元（yoy+17%，qoq-5%）， 归母净利润 583 亿元（yoy+14%，qoq-8%），Non-IFRS 经营利润 695 亿元（yoy+17%，qoq-4%），Non-IFRS 归母净利润 64 ...

36氪出海 . 36氪出海（letschuhai.com）是关注出海的行业媒体，为企业跨境提供海外咨询及专业服务，同时运营着超万人的出海生态社群。 以下文章来源于36氪出海 ，作者36氪出海 来源｜ 36氪出海（ID：wow36krchuhai） 封面来源 ｜ Unsplash TikTok Shop加速拓展欧洲市场，计划进军荷兰、比利时、瑞典、波兰四国 3月17日消息，TikTok Shop正在加速拓展其在欧洲的市场布局，计划进入荷兰、比利时、瑞典和波兰四个新市场。若该计划顺利 推进，TikTok Shop将在欧洲十个国家开展业务。数据显示，TikTok Shop的全球交易总额（GMV）预计到2025年将增长93.9%， 并在2026年继续增长52.6%。然而，欧洲市场对TikTok Shop来说仍然充满挑战，目前欧洲市场的销售额仅占其全球总收入的 5.4%。欧洲消费者相对保守的消费习惯以及Temu等强劲的竞争对手，仍然是TikTok Shop扩展业务的一大制约因素。（亿邦动 力） 速卖通与YouTube在韩国市场达成合作 3月17日消息，阿里旗下跨境电商平台速卖通（AliExpress）与YouTube达 ...

、 本周观点 风险提示 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 咖啡茶饮：1）咖啡：高景气维持；行业具备β性红利，各品牌依旧积极开店，茶饮品牌亦有所布局；阿拉比卡 咖啡期货价格下跌后续有望带来成本改善。2）茶饮：略有承压；4 月起受去年外卖补贴影响基数逐步提高，关注 数据波动风险。 电商：持续承压。1-2 月网上商品零售额 20812 亿元，增长 10.3%，受今年春节错期去年提前网购备货等因素影 响，1-2 月实物电商表现良好，但受国内消费环境影响，持续性仍需观察。 流媒体平台：本周腾讯音乐发布财报，2025年总收入329亿元，yoy+15.8%，经调整归母净利润95.9亿元，yoy+25%。 行业竞争加剧，预计今年在线音乐订阅收入增速将放缓，关注非订阅音乐收入开启第二增长曲线。 虚拟资产&资产交易平台：虚拟资产&资产交易平台：宏观波动，加密市场情绪仍然较低，币价承压。本周 SEC 与 CFTC 发布新监管指引：加密资产分为五大类，多数不属于证券；SEC 批准纳斯达克代币化 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The coffee industry remains highly prosperous, with brands actively opening new stores and potential cost improvements due to the decline in Arabica coffee futures prices [4] - The tea beverage sector is experiencing slight pressure, with data fluctuations expected due to last year's delivery subsidies [4] - E-commerce continues to face challenges, with online retail sales reaching 20,812 billion yuan, growing by 10.3% [4] - Streaming platforms are seeing increased competition, with Tencent Music reporting a total revenue of 32.9 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.8% [4] - The virtual asset and trading platform sector is under macroeconomic pressure, with the SEC and CFTC releasing new regulatory guidelines [4] - The automotive service sector is expanding, with TuHu expected to have 8,008 service stores by 2025, leading the global market [4] - The real estate transaction sector is showing mixed results, with Beike reporting a net income of 94.6 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [4] - The ride-hailing sector is experiencing growth, with Didi reporting a 10.1% year-on-year increase in order volume [4] - AI and cloud services are seeing a shift in demand, with Alibaba and Tencent making significant investments in AI capabilities [4] Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - Coffee and tea beverage sectors are highlighted, with coffee maintaining high growth and tea under slight pressure [4] - E-commerce is under pressure, with a notable growth rate of 10.3% in online retail sales [4] 1.2 Platform & Technology - Streaming platforms are facing increased competition, with Tencent Music's revenue growth reported [4] - The virtual asset sector is experiencing regulatory changes, impacting market sentiment [4] - The automotive service sector is expanding rapidly, with TuHu leading in store numbers [4] 1.2.1 Streaming Platforms - Tencent Music reported a total revenue of 32.9 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 15.8% [4] 1.2.2 Virtual Assets & Trading Platforms - The global cryptocurrency market cap reached 24,816 billion USD, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices showing slight fluctuations [24] 1.2.3 Automotive Services - TuHu is projected to have 8,008 service stores by 2025, leading the global market [39] 1.2.4 O2O - Didi reported a 10.1% year-on-year increase in order volume, indicating strong growth in the ride-hailing sector [42] 1.2.5 AI & Cloud - Alibaba and Tencent are making significant investments in AI, with new product launches and organizational changes [51]

3月22日，微信正式上线了名为ClawBot的官方插件，用户只需通过扫码授权或复制一行命令，即可将用户云端或本地OpenClaw（龙虾）直接连入微信对话 框。完成连接后用户就能通过微信聊天的方式实现和龙虾的交互，并远程指挥相关任务。 一向在变化上以克制著称的微信，迈出了自己的新边界。 这意味着这款最大的国民级社交应用，正式化身为一个诞生仅数月的开源Agent的遥控器。 如此动作之快，在微信乃至腾讯的发展历程上都极为罕见。 从3月12日被OpenClaw创始人公开指责"抄袭"，到3月16日火速通过GitHub Sponsors成为OpenClaw社区赞助商，再到QQ、微信相继的全面接入，短短十天 时间内，腾讯正在围绕龙虾展开了一系列高效且反常的功能上新。 种种迹象背后，可能隐藏了头部大厂对下一世代"操作系统"控制权的错失焦虑与争夺野心。 破例激进 2011年上线至今，极度克制一直是微信的文化底色。 十五年来的每次改版、功能上新，有着反复的评估与内测，怕的就是对用户的打扰。正如张小龙的反复重申，"好的产品，是用完即走的"。过去微信宁可错过 一些风口，也不愿意在核心界面上多放一个让用户感到突兀的功能，甚至此次发布前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The integration of OpenClaw into WeChat is seen as a necessary step for the platform, but its immediate impact may be less significant than anticipated. The move is more about maintaining relevance in the competitive landscape rather than a groundbreaking innovation [9][48]. Group 1: Features of OpenClaw - OpenClaw is not a new product but a plugin that allows users to interact with existing AI agents within WeChat, supporting various versions of these agents [12][13]. - The integration process is user-friendly, taking only about two minutes to set up [16]. - Key limitations include the inability to support group chats, stream outputs, and the restriction to a single agent connection [17][18][19]. Group 2: Timing and Market Position - The timing of WeChat's integration is not particularly fast, as it took over a month compared to the quicker integration of DeepSeek a year prior [20][21]. - The decision to not rush the integration reflects a cautious approach to security and user experience [22][26]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - WeChat's decision to support multiple AI agents rather than developing its own reflects a strategic choice to position itself as a platform rather than a competitor in the AI space [27][78]. - This approach allows WeChat to maintain its role as a foundational infrastructure for communication while enabling users to access various AI tools [28][82]. Group 4: User Experience and Adoption - The integration does not lower the barrier to "raising shrimp" (using AI agents) but rather simplifies communication with them [40][41]. - The actual user base that will benefit from this integration is likely small, as many users may not fully utilize the capabilities of AI agents [56][57]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The integration of OpenClaw is seen as a precursor to more significant developments, with WeChat planning to launch its own AI agent that could integrate more deeply with its ecosystem [64][67]. - This shift towards accepting AI as part of the communication landscape may lead to broader changes in user behavior and expectations [71][75]. Group 6: Long-term Perspective - The short-term impact of OpenClaw's integration may be minimal, but it could represent a pivotal moment in WeChat's evolution towards incorporating AI into its core functionalities [86][88]. - Historical parallels are drawn to the introduction of QR codes, suggesting that user acceptance and adaptation will take time [89][90].

腾讯今天（22日）发布消息 正式推出 微信"ClawBot"插件 支持接入OpenClaw 用户扫码或复制命令 即可将OpenClaw接入微信 连接后，用户能 通过微信聊天的方式 快速调用自己的"龙虾"高效互动 78 T 简单三步 r 第一步: 点击微信设置-找到插件 设置 < 播件 账号安全 个人信息与权限 微信ClawBot . 详情 连接 OpenClaw 与微信 通用 通知 > 界面与显示 e 朋友权限 x 发送指令 存储空间 > 随时随地控制 OpenClaw 更多 w 功能 以下为被结合方出品的其他应用 聊天 > 音视频通话 y 微信输入法 9 使用 简洁、好用,打字快 聊天记录管理 2 其他功能 2 播件 ○ p (3 Moming, 信息证书:47 @ 0 帮助与关于 在线视觉得 (四) 帮助与反馈 NA OWERTYUIDP A S D F G H J K L 关于微信 版本 8.0.69 第二步: 按指令,在「龙虾」中安装微信插件 .. 微信ClawBot 在微信中与 OpenClaw 收发消息 # 在运行 OpenClaw 的设备安装指件,并开始与微信连 接。 npx -y @tence ...

Core Insights - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the internet media sector, highlighting strong growth potential in various sub-sectors such as e-commerce, social entertainment media, internet healthcare, short videos, and IP-driven markets [4][15][18] - The report emphasizes the resilience of the gaming sector, projecting continued industry prosperity into 2026, with specific recommendations for companies like Tencent and NetEase due to their favorable valuations [4][18] - The report identifies significant opportunities in AI and its applications across various sectors, suggesting that AI-driven innovations will lead to a new round of value reassessment in the market [4][21] E-commerce - Alibaba's MaaS business and the progress of its Qianwen model are expected to encourage a return to SOTP valuation perspectives in the market [4][15] - The report notes that Alibaba's recent performance was below expectations, but the long-term outlook remains optimistic due to its AI capabilities and integration with its commercial ecosystem [15] Social Entertainment Media - Tencent is expected to continue leveraging the commercialization potential of WeChat, while Bilibili's advertising growth is projected to outpace the overall internet advertising market, with a forecasted revenue growth rate of 27% in Q4 2025 [4][15][18] Internet Healthcare - JD Health and Alibaba Health are strengthening their partnerships with upstream pharmaceutical manufacturers, leading to robust revenue and profit growth [4][16] Short Videos - The report highlights the commercial potential of short video platforms, benefiting from technological advancements, with expectations of increased capital investment in 2026 [4][16] IP and Toy Market - Pop Mart is expected to enhance its collaboration with overseas designers and strengthen its local IP penetration into international markets, supported by store upgrades and a diverse SKU offering [4][16] Long Videos - The report indicates that the long video sector is stabilizing in terms of membership and advertising revenue, with a focus on exploring new business opportunities related to the main industry [4][17] Music Streaming - The music streaming sector is experiencing healthy membership growth, with strategies in place to optimize ARPU, although there are concerns about competition from new players leading to valuation adjustments [4][17] Gaming Sector - The report maintains a positive outlook on the gaming sector, with expectations of continued industry prosperity into 2026, recommending companies with strong product pipelines and growth potential [4][18] - The report suggests that new game launches will catalyze growth, with several major titles scheduled for release [13][18] Advertising - The report notes a significant increase in internet advertising investment, particularly in consumer categories, driven by major events like the Winter Olympics and the World Cup [4][18] AI Developments - The report highlights advancements in AI technologies, with expectations of a new wave of model iterations and commercial applications emerging in 2026 [4][21]

热播剧遭大规模提前泄露， 0.01 元就能打包买？ 近日，热播剧《逐玉》遭遇大规模提前泄露，引发广泛关注。 文 | 《BUG》栏目 张俊 盗版比正版更新的还快？ 最近，热播剧《逐玉》内容泄露一事成为热议话题。讽刺的是，目前腾讯视频和爱奇艺两大 视频平台的会员们仅能看到 30 集，而二手平台、网盘等盗版资源却能直接看 40 集全集的 高清 内容。 在闲鱼上，甚至有卖家以仅 0.01 元的低价售卖全集资源。有网友反馈，这些盗版资源的片 头有爱奇艺标识，质疑是爱奇艺内部审核不严导致内容泄露。 22 日，腾讯视频、爱奇艺联合制作方发布声明称，严厉谴责并坚决抵制盗版，将严查盗版 来源，保留追究其刑事责任及赔偿损失的权利。声明还呼吁广大网友、观众通过合法播出平 台观看《逐玉》，若发现盗版线索可进行举报。 专家表示，片源泄露对视频平台的损失是多维度的，包括直接收入冲击、内容资产贬值，若 泄露源于内部，还暴露流程管控漏洞，修复信任成本高昂。他认为，打击盗版需构建技术 + 法律 + 生态的立体防线，需要产业链各方主动共治。 据悉，《逐玉》主要在腾讯视频和爱奇艺两大视频平台播出。但在目前两大平台仅更新至 30 集的情况下，就有 ...