马斯克：计划有变

Core Points - Elon Musk has postponed the timeline for SpaceX's Mars landing mission, now more likely to occur between 2028 and 2030 instead of the previously stated 2026 [1][3] - The initial plan included sending five unmanned spacecraft to Mars by the end of 2026, but Musk now acknowledges a very small chance of achieving this goal [2][3] - The delay is attributed to engineering challenges, technical issues with the spacecraft's life support systems, and the need for extensive testing and regulatory approvals [6] Timeline Adjustments - The first unmanned Mars mission is now projected to occur within 3.5 years, with a manned mission expected in 5.5 years, marking a four-year delay from the original schedule [3] - Musk's revised timeline indicates that the next launch window for Mars will open in late 2024, with a 50% chance of success [2][3] Technical Challenges - SpaceX has faced multiple technical setbacks, including the failure of the Starship Super Heavy rocket, which may require significant design modifications [6] - The success of the Mars mission is contingent upon advancements in in-orbit refueling technology and ensuring astronaut safety during long-duration space travel [6] Shift in Vision - Peter Thiel, a Silicon Valley investor and Musk's friend, revealed that Musk has abandoned the political vision of colonizing Mars, now viewing it primarily as a technological endeavor [7] - Musk's initial ideological aspirations for Mars as an escape from Earth’s issues have shifted, recognizing that societal and governmental challenges would persist even on Mars [7]