高盛最新预测：美联储今年将降息三次各25个基点 明年再降两次

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points, and two additional cuts in 2026, bringing rates down to a range of 3% to 3.25% from the current 4.25% to 4.50% [1] - The recent inflation report indicated a modest increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with a 0.2% rise in July following a 0.3% increase in June, aligning with economists' expectations [1] - The decline in gasoline prices by 2.2% contributed to the moderate decrease in the CPI, while food prices remained unchanged after two months of 0.3% increases [1] Group 2 - The U.S. interest rate futures market indicated a 93.8% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with a 6% chance of a 50 basis point cut, a significant increase from 3% earlier in the day [1][2] - Traders are now anticipating a total rate cut of approximately 65 basis points for the year, up from about 60 basis points the previous week [1] Group 3 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen suggested that a 50 basis point cut could be possible due to recent poor employment data, advocating for a reduction of 150 to 175 basis points [3] - Yellen's comments reflect a tendency of the Trump administration to publicly criticize and provide detailed policy suggestions to the independent central bank [3]