Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 智通财经网·2025-08-14 02:28Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs economists predict that by the end of this year, U.S. consumers will increasingly feel the impact of tariffs, leading to rising inflation and potential economic slowdown [1][2]. Economic Impact - Economists estimate that tariffs could reduce GDP by approximately 1% and increase inflation by 1% to 1.5%, with some effects already being felt [2]. - The effective tariff rate is expected to rise to around 18% from about 3% at the beginning of the year, contributing to a steady increase in prices [2]. - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is uncertain, as the current tariff increases are unprecedented compared to historical data [2]. Inflation Trends - Inflation is projected to rise gradually, with core inflation potentially reaching 3.5% by the end of the year, driven by higher costs being passed on to consumers [4]. - The "sticky" nature of inflation is a concern, with the Cleveland Fed's "sticky price CPI" showing a three-month annualized rate of 3.8%, the highest since May 2024 [4]. Consumer Spending and Economic Growth - Short-term inflation increases may suppress consumer spending, with GDP growth for the second half of the year expected to be around 0.85% [3]. - Some economists believe that the restrictive effects of tariffs may be temporary, with expectations for significant growth improvement next year [3]. Future Concerns - The expiration of the "low-value tax exemption" on August 29 could particularly impact retail goods, leading to further price increases [4]. - There is a consensus among economists that higher inflation may lead to hesitation from policymakers regarding interest rate cuts, despite expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy in the future [5].