卓越新能(688196)：生物柴油龙头 双碳背景下的绿色能源先锋

Company Level - Zhuoyue New Energy is the first domestic company specializing in the research and production of biodiesel from waste oils, and it is a leading enterprise in ester-based biodiesel production [1] - The company demonstrates investment value due to three main reasons: 1) Long-term industry-leading performance and maintained profitability despite extreme tariff policies, with strong cost control and supplier management [1] 2) Continuous expansion of domestic and overseas production capacity, with current ester-based capacity near 500,000 tons and potential expansion to nearly 1.3 million tons [1] 3) External negative impacts are diminishing, with better-than-expected effects from EU anti-dumping duties, and the establishment of overseas biodiesel bases will provide a larger base for non-tax sales [1] Industry Level - The biofuel industry has significant growth prospects and investment opportunities due to: 1) Domestic and international policies driving demand growth, with the EU being the largest consumer of biodiesel and China’s largest export market [2] 2) Profit opportunities from carbon pricing and marginal cost improvements, as the economic viability of biodiesel is expected to increase with the advancement of carbon market policies [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are expected to reach 4.807 billion, 7.304 billion, and 8.529 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.9%, 51.9%, and 16.8% respectively [3] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 360 million, 619 million, and 774 million yuan, with growth rates of 141.6%, 71.8%, and 25.2% respectively [3] - The company is rated as "buy" due to strong overseas sales channel expansion, stable biodiesel prices, and significant growth potential from production capacity expansion [3] Stock Price Catalysts - Catalysts for stock price include the commissioning of new domestic and overseas production capacity, a decrease in raw oil costs, and accelerated demand growth driven by domestic policies [4]