丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨环保 [Table_Title] 2025H1 生物燃料总结：SAF 出口渠道打通，生 物柴油和 UCO 开拓东南亚市场 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025H1 我国 HVO&SAF 出口总量 33.84 万吨，同比增长 8.06%，国内 SAF 出口渠道顺利打 通。生物柴油出口 38.1 万吨，同比下滑 42.4%，主要受反倾销关税影响；对马来西亚和新加坡 出口占比大幅提升，推测主要用于船舶燃料掺混。UCO 出口量 126.2 万吨，同比降 10.5%，新 加坡替代美国成为我国 UCO 出口第一大目的地。当前时点，欧美新加坡等海外市场变量较多， 建议跟踪海外政策和需求变化，期待国内更多支持性政策落地，建议关注卓越新能等。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 徐科 任楠 贾少波 李博文 盛意 SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490518070001 SAC：S0490520070003 SAC：S0490524080004 SAC：S0490525070006 SFC：BUV415 SFC：BUZ393 请阅读最后评级说明和重要 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies involved in palm oil and biodiesel sectors, highlighting potential price increases in these markets [4]. Core Insights - Palm oil futures prices have reached a new high for the year, with a closing price of 9,490 CNY/ton on August 13, 2025, marking a 13.06% increase since July 1, 2025 [1]. - Indonesia's plan to implement a B50 blending mandate for biodiesel is expected to significantly boost palm oil demand, potentially increasing annual consumption by up to 19 million kiloliters [2]. - The U.S. is projected to increase biodiesel blending by 67% in 2026, which may create a ripple effect in the global oilseed market, influencing prices across various vegetable oils [3]. Summary by Sections Palm Oil Market - The DCE palm oil futures price has surpassed 9,400 CNY/ton, indicating strong market performance [1]. - Indonesia's B50 plan could lead to a substantial increase in domestic palm oil consumption, reflecting government commitment to enhancing local usage [2]. Biodiesel Sector - The U.S. EPA's proposed rule for 2026 aims to raise biodiesel blending to 5.61 billion gallons, a 67% increase from the current year, which is expected to impact the overall vegetable oil market positively [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Zanyu Technology, which benefits from stable raw material prices in Indonesia, and other players in the biodiesel supply chain such as Shanggou Environmental Energy and Jiaao Environmental Protection [4][5].

Company Overview -卓越新能 is the first domestic company specializing in the research and production of biodiesel from waste oils, and it is a leading enterprise in ester-based biodiesel production in China [2][3] - The company has maintained profitability despite extreme tariff policies, showcasing superior cost control, supplier management, and sales channel expansion capabilities [2][3] - The company currently has ester-based production capacity of nearly 500,000 tons, with plans to expand biodiesel production to approximately 1.3 million tons [2][3] Industry Outlook - The biodiesel industry has significant growth potential, driven by domestic and international policy support, with the EU being the largest consumer of biodiesel globally [3] - The demand for biodiesel is expected to increase as carbon pricing and marginal cost improvements create profitability opportunities [3] - The company can mitigate the impact of EU anti-dumping duties by exporting to high-demand regions outside the EU and establishing production facilities in non-tax regions [3] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.807 billion, 7.304 billion, and 8.529 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.9%, 51.9%, and 16.8% respectively [4] - Net profits for the same period are expected to be 360 million, 619 million, and 774 million yuan, with growth rates of 141.6%, 71.8%, and 25.2% respectively [4] - The estimated EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.00, 5.15, and 6.45 yuan per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.37, 8.95, and 7.15 [4] Catalysts for Stock Price - New production capacity coming online both domestically and internationally [5] - Decrease in raw material costs [5] - Acceleration of demand growth driven by domestic policies [5]

石油石化 2025 年 8 月 13 日 卓越新能(688196.SH) 国内酯基生柴龙头，脂肪醇放量驱动新增长 推荐（首次） 8 月 12 日：45.60 元 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2812 3563 | | 4461 | 5469 | 6855 | | YOY(%) | -35.3 | 26.7 | 25.2 | 22.6 | 25.3 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 79 | 149 | 357 | 469 | 581 | | YOY(%) | -82.6 | 89.6 | 139.5 | 31.3 | 24.1 | | 毛利率(%) | 7.7 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 12.5 | 12.9 | | 净利率(%) | 2.8 | 4.2 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 8.5 | | ROE(%) | 2.9 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The chlor-alkali industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, driven by a tightening supply of glyphosate and glufosinate, leading to price increases [4][20] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to be a key focus in 2025 and beyond, aiming to optimize the competitive landscape in the chemical industry [26] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.1% this week, with 76.7% of the 545 tracked stocks showing weekly gains [17] - The average price of glyphosate increased to 26,399 CNY/ton, a rise of 0.37% from the previous week, while glufosinate also saw a price increase [21][22] Key Products Tracking - Urea and potassium chloride prices have risen, while phosphorite and phosphates remain stable [52] - The average price of urea reached 1,780 CNY/ton, up 0.62% from the previous week, driven by improved market sentiment [52][54] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include leading chemical companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Hengli Petrochemical [6][26] - Beneficiary stocks include companies like Jiangshan Co., Ltd. and Hebei New Chemical Materials [24][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the chemical industry, specifically recommending Shengquan Group, Hailide, and Zhuoyue New Energy [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with strong performance in the first half of the year, particularly those expected to exceed earnings forecasts in Q2 2025. It highlights Shengquan Group's role as a major domestic supplier of electronic resins for AI servers, benefiting from increasing server shipments. Hailide is noted for its leadership in the polyester industrial yarn sector, which is expected to benefit from U.S. tariff conflicts. Zhuoyue New Energy is recognized for its capacity growth and new product launches, which are anticipated to elevate its performance [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Overview - The chemical industry index closed at 3727.14 points, down 1.46% from the previous week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.29% [10]. - Key chemical products such as TDI, epoxy chloropropane, lithium hydroxide, formic acid, and phosphoric acid saw significant price increases [21]. Key Sub-Industry Tracking - **Phosphate Fertilizers**: The report indicates a peak export window for phosphate fertilizers, with exports expected to alleviate domestic overcapacity and maintain profitability for large phosphate chemical companies like Yuntianhua [2]. - **Pesticides**: Following a chemical safety incident, the report anticipates a nationwide safety inspection that may lead to the elimination of non-compliant production capacities, potentially boosting the pesticide industry's outlook [3]. - **Polyester Filament**: The report notes a slight increase in polyester filament prices, driven by rising production costs and a modest uptick in demand, although overall market conditions remain weak [24][25]. Company Performance Forecasts - Shengquan Group is projected to have an EPS of 1.03 in 2024, with a PE ratio of 31, while Hailide's EPS is expected to be 0.35 with a PE of 16. Zhuoyue New Energy is forecasted to achieve an EPS of 1.24 with a PE of 35 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company,卓越新能, is experiencing a decline in stock price and revenue, while showing significant growth in net profit, indicating a mixed performance in the current market environment [1]. Company Summary -卓越新能's closing stock price on July 28 was 44.41 yuan, down 1.29%, with a rolling PE ratio of 29.39 times and a total market value of 5.329 billion yuan [1]. - The company operates in the chemical products industry, which has an average PE ratio of 49.15 times and a median of 44.31 times, placing卓越新能 at the 79th position in the industry ranking [1]. - As of the first quarter of 2025, nine institutions hold shares in卓越新能, with a total of 2.0252 million shares valued at 0.97 billion yuan [1]. -卓越新能 specializes in producing biodiesel and bio-based materials from waste oil, with main products including various grades of biodiesel, bioester plasticizers, industrial glycerin, and eco-friendly alkyd resins [1]. - The company is recognized as a national high-tech enterprise and has received several accolades, including being a model enterprise for circular economy in Fujian Province [1]. Financial Performance - In the first quarter of 2025,卓越新能 reported an operating income of 709 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.39%, while net profit reached 61.3122 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 111.22% [1]. - The sales gross margin for the company stood at 8.67% [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry [1] Core Insights - Recent price performance of polysilicon, organic silicon, and refrigerants has been strong, indicating a potential investment opportunity [1][5] - The low-altitude economy and robotics industry are entering a commercialization phase, leading to increased demand for new materials and lightweight materials [5][25] - The semiconductor materials market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected revenue of $67.5 billion by 2024, driven by advancements in technology and domestic production [17][20] Summary by Sections 1. Key Sub-industry and Product Tracking - Polysilicon price reached 53,085 CNY/ton, up 21.8% week-on-week; organic silicon average price at 13,500 CNY/ton, up 9.76% [3][9] - Phosphate lithium price increased to 34,900 CNY/ton, up 5.12%; bromine price at 26,800 CNY/ton, up 3.08% [3][9] - Refrigerant R32 average price at 55,000 CNY/ton, up 1.85% [3][9] 2. Electronic Chemicals - The electronic chemicals sector is characterized by a wide variety of specialized products, high technical barriers, and rapid product updates [12][14] - The domestic semiconductor materials market is expected to grow faster than the global market, with a CAGR of 10% from 2017 to 2023 [17][20] 3. New Quality Productivity - Carbon fiber and ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) are gaining attention due to their applications in low-altitude economy and robotics [25][29] - PEEK materials are increasingly used in humanoid robots, with demand growing significantly [30] 4. Lithium Battery/Storage Materials - Conductive agents like multi-walled carbon nanotubes are essential for lithium battery materials, with current prices around 64,000 CNY/ton [33][37] - Sodium battery materials are also gaining traction, with prices for Prussian blue compounds at 36,000 CNY/ton [37] 5. Renewable and Modified Plastics - The market for renewable plastics is expanding, with a notable increase in the recycling rate of plastics from 4.8% in 2018 to 10% in 2021 [49] - Special engineering plastics are increasingly in demand across various industries, including automotive and aerospace [49] 6. Market Performance - The basic chemical index rose by 3.65% in the week of July 21-27, outperforming the overall market [60][61] - The chemical industry has shown strong performance recently, with a monthly increase of 6.62% [61]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the performance and valuation of Zhuoyue New Energy, which closed at 45.02 yuan with a PE ratio of 29.80 times, below the industry average of 50.46 times [1][2] - Zhuoyue New Energy's market capitalization stands at 5.402 billion yuan, ranking 79th in the chemical products industry based on PE ratio [1][2] - As of the first quarter of 2025, nine institutions hold shares in Zhuoyue New Energy, with a total of 2.0252 million shares valued at 0.97 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The main business of Zhuoyue New Energy involves producing biodiesel and utilizing waste oil resources, with key products including various grades of biodiesel and bio-based materials [1] - The latest financial results for the first quarter of 2025 show an operating revenue of 709 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.39%, while net profit increased by 111.22% to 61.3122 million yuan, with a gross margin of 8.67% [1] - Zhuoyue New Energy is recognized as a national high-tech enterprise and has received various accolades in the field of circular economy and innovation in Fujian Province [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the chemical industry, specifically recommending Shengquan Group, Hailide, and Zhuoyue New Energy [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with strong performance in the first half of the year, particularly those expected to exceed earnings forecasts in Q2 2025. It highlights Shengquan Group's position as a major domestic supplier of electronic resins for AI servers, benefiting from increasing server shipments. Hailide is noted for its leadership in the polyester industrial yarn sector, which is expected to benefit from U.S. tariff conflicts. Zhuoyue New Energy is recognized for its capacity growth and new product launches, which are anticipated to elevate its performance [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Overview - The chemical sector index closed at 3572.47 points, up 1.53% from the previous week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.71% [10][11]. - Among 462 stocks in the chemical sector, 318 stocks rose (69%) while 137 fell (30%) during the week [15]. Key Chemical Products - Liquid chlorine, trichloromethane, HIPS, and potassium chloride saw significant price increases, with liquid chlorine rising by 16% and trichloromethane by 9% [19][20]. - The report tracks 380 chemical products, with 67 experiencing price increases and 116 seeing declines [19]. Fertilizer Sector - The report indicates a favorable export window for phosphate fertilizers, with exports expected to peak between May and September 2025. This is anticipated to alleviate domestic overcapacity and maintain profitability for companies like Yuntianhua, which has phosphate mineral resources [2]. Safety and Regulatory Environment - Following a chemical accident, there is an expected nationwide safety inspection in the pesticide industry, which may lead to the elimination of non-compliant production capacities and improve the industry's overall outlook [3]. Company Performance Forecasts - Shengquan Group is projected to have an EPS of 1.03 in 2024, increasing to 2.13 by 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 28 in 2024 to 14 in 2026. Hailide's EPS is expected to rise from 0.35 to 0.41, maintaining a PE ratio of 16. Zhuoyue New Energy is forecasted to see significant growth in EPS from 1.24 to 4.80, with a PE ratio dropping from 36 to 9 [4].