其他化学制品Ⅲ 卓越新能（688196.SH） 买入-A(首次) 2025 年 1 月 20 日 公司研究/公司快报 | 市场数据：2025 年 1 月 | 17 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元）： | 34.03 | | 年内最高/最低（元）： | 49.93/18.22 | | 流通A股/总股本（亿）： | 1.20/1.20 | | 流通 股市值（亿）： A | 40.84 | | 总市值（亿）： | 40.84 | | 基础数据：2024 年 | 9 月 | 30 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基本每股收益(元)： | | | 0.77 | | 摊薄每股收益(元)： | | | 0.77 | | 每股净资产(元)： | | | 22.77 | | 净资产收益率(%)： | | | 3.38 | 李旋坤 执业登记编码：S0760523110004 邮箱：lixuankun@sxzq.com 王金源 邮箱：wangjinyuan@sxzq.com 深耕废弃油脂综合利用领域，业绩有望持续向上修复 事件描述 公司研究/公司快报 投入生产运营，项目建成后 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [4][6] Core Views - The company's 2024 annual performance is expected to show significant growth, with a projected net profit attributable to the parent company of approximately 1.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 90.81% [1] - The growth is attributed to the recovery of international biodiesel prices in Q4 2024, with European Ucome FOB prices increasing by 9.65% and Southeast Asian biodiesel FOB prices rising by 16.01% compared to Q3 2024 [2] - The company's Singapore subsidiary is expected to contribute to future growth, with a planned annual production capacity of 200,000 tons of biodiesel, with the first phase of 100,000 tons expected to be operational by Q1 2025 [3] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 2,812 million yuan in 2023 to 5,345 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 18.1% from 2024 to 2026 [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 79 million yuan in 2023 to 399 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 90.3% from 2024 to 2026 [5] - EPS is projected to rise from 0.66 yuan in 2023 to 3.33 yuan in 2026, with a corresponding PE ratio decreasing from 52 in 2023 to 10 in 2026 [5] Industry and Market Analysis - Singapore's biofuel market is emerging as a significant player, with biofuel usage reaching 106,500 tons in December 2024, a 135.10% increase from the beginning of the year [3] - The company's strategic focus on Singapore's biofuel market is expected to capitalize on the region's growing demand for marine fuel, with biofuel accounting for 2.2% of total fuel usage in Singapore by the end of 2024 [3] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The company's valuation is supported by its strong growth prospects, with a projected PE ratio of 27 in 2024, decreasing to 10 by 2026 [4][5] - The report recommends the company based on its favorable business outlook, expanding product margins, and ongoing overseas base construction [4]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" based on its strong performance and future growth potential [5][7] Core Viewpoints - The company's 2024 annual performance is expected to increase by over 90% year-on-year, with a projected net profit attributable to the parent company of approximately 1.5 billion yuan, up 90.81% from the previous year [1] - The company has successfully navigated international trade challenges, particularly the EU's anti-dumping measures, by expanding overseas channels and optimizing costs [2][3] - The company is investing in new production lines, including a 100,000-ton HVO/SAF production line, which is expected to benefit from the global shift towards sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [4] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 3.5 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.5 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to increase from 1.5 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.77 billion yuan in 2026 [5][6] - The company's EPS is forecasted to rise from 1.25 yuan in 2024 to 5.64 yuan in 2026, reflecting strong growth potential [5][6] - The company's EBITDA is expected to grow significantly, from 244.98 million yuan in 2024 to 762.46 million yuan in 2026 [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company has established stable operations in the Netherlands and Singapore, with plans to expand production lines in Saudi Arabia and other overseas markets [2] - The company is focusing on cost reduction, process optimization, and expanding non-EU markets to mitigate the impact of international trade policies [2] - The company is actively promoting the application of biodiesel in domestic bio-ship fuel markets and exploring new markets in the bio-based chemical sector [2] Industry Outlook - The global demand for SAF is expected to exceed 15 million tons by 2030, driven by the aviation industry's decarbonization strategy [4] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the shift in the biodiesel supply chain, as raw materials are increasingly directed towards SAF production [4] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 26.78 in 2024 to 5.92 in 2026, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [6] - The company's EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decline from 11.47 in 2024 to 4.12 in 2026, reflecting improved operational efficiency and profitability [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 32.67 yuan per share [7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of approximately 1.50 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 90.8% [2][5] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of approximately 57.65 million yuan, turning around from losses in both the same period last year and the previous quarter [2][5] - The significant improvement in Q4 2024 performance is attributed to the recovery of international biodiesel prices and effective control of raw material procurement costs, with the profit per ton rebounding to 576 yuan/ton [2][5] - The company is optimistic about the potential performance boost from the planned 100,000-ton capacity in Singapore, expected to be operational in 2025 [2][5] Market Performance and Industry Analysis - The company's stock price has shown significant volatility over the past 12 months, with a high of 49.93 yuan and a low of 18.22 yuan [7] - Despite a 42.8% year-on-year decline in China's biodiesel exports from January to November 2024, the company's export volume from Fujian Province (where it is the main exporter) only decreased by 16.2% [10] - The company has adjusted its export model since Q4 2023, establishing its own sales network in Europe, which has helped maintain relatively high capacity utilization and export volume [10] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to the parent company of 1.50 billion yuan, 3.21 billion yuan, and 3.93 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [10] - The corresponding P/E ratios for these years are 26.2x, 12.2x, and 10.0x, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [10] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively responding to the EU's anti-dumping sanctions on biodiesel by expanding sales in non-EU markets and increasing the application of biodiesel in the marine fuel market [10] - It is also exploring opportunities in the domestic bio-based chemical market and building production lines in overseas markets such as Singapore and Saudi Arabia to ensure sustained profitability [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [7][22] Core Views - The company's Q4 2024 performance shows a significant recovery, with a projected 90.81% YoY increase in net profit attributable to the parent company, reaching approximately 150 million RMB [2][11] - The company has effectively mitigated the impact of EU anti-dumping sanctions by adjusting its sales model and maintaining high operating rates [3][11] - The EU's mandate for a 2% SAF blend in aviation fuel by 2025 presents a long-term growth opportunity, with global SAF consumption expected to reach 2 million tons [4][18] - The cancellation of UCO export tax rebates in China is expected to reduce raw material costs for domestic biodiesel companies, benefiting the company's procurement [3][17] Financial Performance - The company's 2024 revenue is projected to be 3,497 million RMB, a 24.4% increase from 2023, with net profit expected to reach 150 million RMB, a 90.6% YoY increase [5][22] - The company's EPS for 2024 is forecasted at 1.25 RMB, with a PE ratio of 26.14x [5][22] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 5.3% in 2024 to 12.3% by 2026 [5] Industry and Market Dynamics - The EU's temporary anti-dumping duty of 25.4% on the company's biodiesel products has impacted its 2024 gross margin, but the company has adjusted by expanding sales in non-EU European markets and increasing exports to Singapore [11][19] - The company is actively building a 100,000-ton/year second-generation biodiesel production line, which is expected to produce SAF and drive future growth [4][18] - The company is expanding its global presence with production lines in Singapore and Saudi Arabia, with the Singapore line expected to start production in H1 2025, adding 100,000 tons/year of capacity [17] Strategic Initiatives - The company is diversifying its product portfolio by developing bio-based materials, including industrial glycerin, bio-ester plasticizers, and environmentally friendly alkyd resins, and is advancing the construction of a 100,000-ton synthetic resin production facility [19] - The company's international expansion, particularly in Singapore, is expected to help mitigate EU tariff risks and enhance profitability [17]

Topic 1: Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Owners - Expected net profit attributable to parent company owners in 2024 is approximately 150 million yuan, an increase of 71.3892 million yuan, up 90.81% year-over-year[4] - Net profit attributable to parent company owners in 2023 was 78.6108 million yuan[6] Topic 2: Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Owners After Deducting Non-Recurring Gains and Losses - Expected net profit attributable to parent company owners after deducting non-recurring gains and losses in 2024 is approximately 140 million yuan, an increase of 31.9444 million yuan, up 29.56% year-over-year[4] - Net profit attributable to parent company owners after deducting non-recurring gains and losses in 2023 was 108.0556 million yuan[6] Topic 3: Reasons for Performance Increase in 2024 - The increase in 2024 performance is mainly due to the recovery of international biodiesel prices in the fourth quarter and reasonable control of raw material procurement costs[8]

Project Updates - Hydrocarbon-based biodiesel production line construction started in Q3 2024, expected to be operational by Q3 2025 [2][5] - SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) production line construction started in Q3 2024 [2][5] - 50,000 tons/year natural fatty alcohol production line expected to be operational by 2025 [5] Financial Performance - Net profit attributable to shareholders decreased in the first three quarters of 2024 due to falling European market prices and increased sales expenses [7] - Revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2024 driven by independent sales of biodiesel in Europe at local terminal prices [7] Policy Impact - Export tax rebate for chemically modified animal, vegetable, or microbial oils and fats canceled from December 1, 2024, promoting sustainable development of the biodiesel industry [5] Production Capacity - Current annual biodiesel production capacity: 500,000 tons [5] - Current annual bio-based materials production capacity: 90,000 tons [5] Shareholder Information - Number of shareholders as of September 30, 2024: 6,026 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expectations of future growth driven by overseas capacity expansion [7] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 1.042 billion yuan in 2024Q3, a year-on-year increase of 47.01%, but net profit attributable to the parent company was -9 million yuan, a significant decrease of 755.36% year-on-year [1][4] - Despite the downturn in the biodiesel industry due to anti-dumping investigations, the company maintained relatively high capacity utilization and export volume [1][4] - The company's performance was impacted by increased transportation and storage costs, declining biodiesel prices in Europe, and temporary anti-dumping duties [1][4] - The company is actively responding to EU anti-dumping sanctions by expanding non-EU markets and increasing biodiesel applications in the marine fuel market [5] - The company is expected to see performance elasticity in 2025Q1 with the launch of its 100,000-ton capacity in Singapore [1][6] Financial Performance - In 2024Q1-3, the company achieved revenue of 2.974 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.19%, but net profit attributable to the parent company was 92 million yuan, a decrease of 39.66% year-on-year [4] - The company's gross profit margin in 2024Q3 was -1.59%, a decrease of 5.51 percentage points year-on-year and 7.79 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to the parent company of 25 million yuan in 2024, 84 million yuan in 2025, and 176 million yuan in 2026 [6] Market and Industry Analysis - The company's revenue growth in 2024Q3 was driven by its adjustment of export models and the establishment of an independent sales network in Europe, which helped maintain export volume despite a 48.0% decline in China's biodiesel exports [4] - The company's sales model adjustment led to higher per-ton revenue as it now recognizes revenue based on EU terminal prices rather than FOB prices [4] - The company is expanding its domestic market applications in the bio-based chemical sector, with its natural fatty alcohol project expected to be completed and operational by the end of the year [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to face performance pressure in 2024 due to the 25.4% temporary anti-dumping duty imposed on it and its subsidiary Xiamen Excellence [6] - The company's future growth is expected to be driven by its overseas capacity expansion, particularly the 100,000-ton capacity in Singapore, which is expected to be operational in 2025Q1 [6]

Revenue and Profit Performance - Revenue for the third quarter was RMB 1,041,970,426.54, a 47.01% increase compared to the same period last year[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the third quarter was RMB -8,812,653.98, a 755.36% decrease compared to the same period last year[2] - Revenue for the year-to-date was RMB 2,974,236,093.16, a 17.19% increase compared to the same period last year[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the year-to-date was RMB 92,353,963.31, a 39.66% decrease compared to the same period last year[2] - Operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 2,974,236,093.16 RMB, a 17.2% increase from 2,537,971,941.42 RMB in the same period last year[14] - Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders was 92,353,963.31 RMB[16] - Sales revenue from goods and services in the first three quarters of 2024 reached RMB 3.09 billion, up from RMB 2.72 billion in the same period of 2023[18] - Basic earnings per share for the first three quarters of 2024 were RMB 0.77, compared to RMB 1.28 in the same period of 2023[17] - Total comprehensive income attributable to the parent company's owners in the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 82.60 million, compared to RMB 153.05 million in the same period of 2023[17] R&D Investment and Expenses - R&D investment for the third quarter was RMB 27,890,440.40, a 28.32% decrease compared to the same period last year[3] - R&D investment as a percentage of revenue for the third quarter was 2.68%, a decrease of 2.81 percentage points compared to the same period last year[3] - R&D expenses decreased to 90,048,432.56 RMB, down from 111,828,896.75 RMB in the previous year[16] Asset and Liability Changes - Total assets as of the end of the reporting period were RMB 3,485,474,424.70, a 13.67% increase compared to the end of the previous year[3] - The company's monetary funds increased to 541,028,568.74 RMB as of September 30, 2024, compared to 273,897,924.80 RMB at the end of 2023[11] - The company's accounts receivable increased to 65,699,674.38 RMB as of September 30, 2024, compared to 3,459,039.87 RMB at the end of 2023[11] - The company's total current assets increased to 1,929,105,355.52 RMB as of September 30, 2024, compared to 1,349,137,735.49 RMB at the end of 2023[11] - The company's fixed assets decreased to 591,245,349.35 RMB as of September 30, 2024, compared to 634,806,616.18 RMB at the end of 2023[11] - The company's construction in progress increased to 198,395,937.78 RMB as of September 30, 2024, compared to 89,853,665.15 RMB at the end of 2023[11] - The company's intangible assets decreased to 97,976,553.39 RMB as of September 30, 2024, compared to 100,075,669.55 RMB at the end of 2023[11] - Total assets increased to 3,485,474,424.70 RMB, up from 3,066,356,254.44 RMB in the previous period[12] - Total liabilities rose to 752,615,918.31 RMB, compared to 386,100,644.53 RMB previously[13] - Long-term loans increased to 421,000,000.00 RMB, up from 240,000,000.00 RMB[12] - Deferred tax assets grew to 10,419,448.30 RMB, compared to 544,403.01 RMB previously[12] - Other non-current assets rose to 821,821,201.88 RMB, up from 623,025,387.16 RMB[12] - Total equity increased to 2,732,858,506.39 RMB, compared to 2,680,255,609.91 RMB previously[13] Shareholder and Ownership Information - The total number of ordinary shareholders at the end of the reporting period is 6,026[8] - Longyan Excellence Investment Co., Ltd. holds 58,500,000 shares, accounting for 48.75% of the total shares[8] - Hong Kong Excellence International Holdings Limited holds 31,500,000 shares, accounting for 26.25% of the total shares[8] Cash Flow and Financial Activities - Net cash flow from operating activities in the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 98.44 million, a decrease from RMB 115.21 million in the same period of 2023[19] - Net cash flow from investing activities in the first three quarters of 2024 was negative RMB 120.99 million, an improvement from negative RMB 473.80 million in the same period of 2023[19] - Net cash flow from financing activities in the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 269.83 million, a significant increase from RMB 4.68 million in the same period of 2023[19] - The company's cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q3 2024 were RMB 534.51 million, compared to RMB 327.78 million at the end of Q3 2023[20] - The company received RMB 76.24 million in tax refunds in the first three quarters of 2024, down from RMB 114.92 million in the same period of 2023[18] - The company invested RMB 120.99 million in fixed assets, intangible assets, and other long-term assets in the first three quarters of 2024, up from RMB 50.08 million in the same period of 2023[19] - The company's total cash inflow from operating activities in the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 3.27 billion, compared to RMB 2.89 billion in the same period of 2023[19] Profitability and Return Metrics - Basic earnings per share for the third quarter was RMB -0.07, an 800.00% decrease compared to the same period last year[7] - The weighted average return on equity for the third quarter was -0.32%, a decrease of 0.37 percentage points compared to the same period last year[3] - Financial expenses showed a net income of -34,555,261.95 RMB, compared to -27,670,378.43 RMB in the previous year[16] Market and Operational Challenges - The decrease in net profit was mainly due to falling European market prices and increased sales expenses such as warehousing and dock operations in Europe[6]

2024 年半年度报告 公司代码：688196 公司简称：卓越新能 龙岩卓越新能源股份有限公司 2024 年半年度报告 1/ 179 2024 年半年度报告 重要提示 一、 本公司董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证半年度报告内容的真实性、准确性、 完整性，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 二、 重大风险提示 报告期内，不存在对公司生产经营产生实质性影响的特别重大风险。公司已在本报告中详细 描述可能存在的相关风险，敬请查阅"第三节 管理层讨论与分析"之"五、风险因素"的内容。 三、 公司全体董事出席董事会会议。 四、 本半年度报告未经审计。 五、 公司负责人叶活动、主管会计工作负责人何正凌及会计机构负责人（会计主管人员）邓可可 声明：保证半年度报告中财务报告的真实、准确、完整。 六、 董事会决议通过的本报告期利润分配预案或公积金转增股本预案 不适用 七、 是否存在公司治理特殊安排等重要事项 □适用√不适用 八、 前瞻性陈述的风险声明 √适用□不适用 本报告所涉及的经营计划、发展战略等前瞻性陈述，不构成公司对投资者的实质性承诺，请 投资者注意投资风险。 九、 是否存在被 ...