孙正义，又“一把翻身”了

Core Insights - SoftBank's Vision Fund 2 has incurred a staggering loss of $22 billion, yet the valuation surge of OpenAI has propelled SoftBank's stock to a record high, showcasing Masayoshi Son's ability to recover from crises [1][2][4] Investment Performance - SoftBank's stock reached a historical high of 14,825 yen, with a market capitalization of $146 billion, reflecting a 75% increase this year, largely attributed to its investment in OpenAI [1] - The valuation of OpenAI has soared to $500 billion, effectively doubling SoftBank's previous investment value of $9.7 billion, which is crucial for offsetting the losses from Vision Fund 2 [2] Investment Strategy - Vision Fund 2 has performed poorly since its inception in 2019, with losses amounting to $22 billion across investments in 280 companies, representing nearly one-third of its capital [4] - SoftBank's investment in OpenAI employs a high-leverage strategy, involving complex financial maneuvers, including borrowing from various sources to acquire shares [4] - An additional investment of $22.5 billion in OpenAI is anticipated by year-end, potentially increasing SoftBank's stake to 12% if the deal is finalized [4] Governance Concerns - Unlike the first Vision Fund, Vision Fund 2 lacks external investors, leading to Masayoshi Son holding 17.25% of the fund, which ties his personal wealth closely to its performance [5] - Concerns have been raised regarding corporate governance, as Son's personal stake may diminish potential returns for SoftBank's shareholders [5] Concentration Risk - The substantial investment in OpenAI could account for 34% of Vision Fund 2's total size, raising alarms about high concentration risk reminiscent of past failures, such as the WeWork investment [6] - Despite the current positive outlook for the investment, there are warnings that it could end in a similar disaster as previous high-stakes bets [6]