Rockchip(SH:603893) 智通财经网·2025-08-14 02:59Core Viewpoint - The Chinese semiconductor industry is experiencing a unique form of "non-typical involution," characterized by structural imbalances rather than traditional overcapacity, where high-quality production is in short supply while low-level, homogeneous production intensifies market competition [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Expansion and Capacity - The semiconductor industry in China is expanding rapidly, with a projected 15% increase in chip manufacturing capacity in 2024, reaching 8.85 million wafers per month, driven by the launch of 18 new semiconductor fabs [2]. - The global capacity is also expected to grow by 6% in the same year, with domestic foundries becoming the main contributors to mature process capacity increases by 2025 [2]. Group 2: Quality vs. Quantity - Despite rapid capacity expansion, there is a mismatch in effective supply growth, leading to excessive competition in low-level segments while high-quality capacity remains severely lacking [3]. - High-end production facilities are operating at full capacity, with SMIC reporting a capacity utilization rate of 89.6% in Q1 2025, and Hua Hong Semiconductor indicating near full production for 2024 [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The semiconductor industry's involution is primarily due to severe technological homogenization, imbalanced capacity expansion, and a lack of industry chain collaboration, particularly in low-end segments like mature process chips [3][4]. - The SiC substrate market is facing a downturn, with a projected 9% revenue decline in 2024 due to weakened demand and intensified competition, prompting companies like Tiantong to pause related projects [4]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - Companies are exploring paths to break free from low-level competition by shifting focus from price wars to differentiated innovation and ecosystem collaboration [4][5]. - For instance, Rockchip is concentrating on core technologies in audio, video, and perception, aiming to build a differentiated platform for new production capabilities [5][6]. Group 5: Structural Optimization - To resolve the non-typical involution, a structural optimization across the industry is necessary, emphasizing the distinction between market competition and low-end involution [7]. - The proposed "dislocated competition" strategy suggests that state-supported "national teams" focus on high-tech challenges, while local government-backed firms target promising niche markets, allowing market-driven companies to compete in the mature process sector [7][8].