EIA库存数据意外增加，市场风险偏好回暖依然无法阻止油价下跌

Group 1 - Oil prices experienced a slight rebound on Thursday, with Brent crude futures rising by $0.28, or 0.43%, to $65.91 per barrel, and WTI crude futures increasing by $0.23, or 0.37%, to $62.89 per barrel [1] - The previous decline in oil prices was influenced by bearish supply guidance from the U.S. government and the International Energy Agency (IEA), which led both benchmarks to hit two-month lows [1][3] - The upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin is injecting a risk premium into the market, with potential economic sanctions hinted at if no peace consensus is reached regarding Ukraine [3] Group 2 - Rystad Energy noted that the uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Russia negotiations has increased the bullish risk premium in the oil market, as Russian oil buyers may face greater economic pressure [3] - The IEA's latest forecast indicates that global oil supply growth in 2025 and 2026 will exceed expectations, primarily due to OPEC+ production increases and rising output from non-OPEC countries [4] - The short-term price movement of WTI crude is supported around $62.50, with resistance observed between $64.20 and $64.50, which is close to the 20-day moving average [4] Group 3 - The market is currently in a tug-of-war between geopolitical factors and expectations of monetary policy easing, which are pushing up risk premiums, while increasing inventories and supply expansion are exerting downward pressure [5] - The outcome of the U.S.-Russia meeting and the Federal Reserve's policy path in September are expected to significantly influence market volatility in the near term [5]