7月政府债支撑社会融资，需求仍待提振

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that government bonds continue to support the growth of social financing, but the strength of this support may gradually weaken due to remaining quota considerations, making the ability of credit to take over crucial for social financing performance [1][4][6] Group 2 - In the first seven months of 2025, the social financing scale increased by 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, reaching a total balance of 431.26 trillion yuan by the end of July, marking a year-on-year growth of 9%, the highest in nearly 17 months [2][4] - Government bonds net financing in the first seven months amounted to 8.9 trillion yuan, which is 4.88 trillion yuan more than the previous year [3][4] - In July, social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, which is 383.9 billion yuan more than the same month last year, marking the eighth consecutive month of year-on-year growth [4][6] Group 3 - The increase in government bond financing in July was significant, with net financing of approximately 1.24 trillion yuan, which is about 560 billion yuan more than the previous year, continuing to be the main driver of social financing [4][6] - In the first seven months of 2025, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, with the loan balance reaching 268.51 trillion yuan by the end of July, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [4][5] Group 4 - The "deposit regularization" issue improved in July, with the broad money (M2) balance reaching 329.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, while the narrow money (M1) balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% [6][7] - The narrowing of the M2-M1 "scissors difference" indicates that enterprises are holding more "liquid money," which is a positive sign for financial liquidity [6][7] Group 5 - Experts suggest that the impact of debt replacement on loan data remains significant, with an estimated 2.6 trillion yuan of refinancing special bonds replacing loans, affecting loan growth by about 1 percentage point [4][5] - Future policy measures, including new rounds of stimulus and personal consumption loan interest subsidies, are expected to boost credit performance [5][6]