房企巨头被迫转行？2025年楼市的变化，马云8年前那句话说对

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market in 2025 has experienced a dramatic transformation, with property prices plummeting and a stark contrast to the previous boom years, leading to unprecedented challenges for developers and investors [1][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - In 2025, the national population has seen a continuous decline for three years, with newborns dropping below 9 million and the elderly population exceeding 310 million, indicating a significant demographic shift [1]. - The total area of unsold commercial housing in China has reached 780 million square meters, with a substantial number of vacant properties, enough to accommodate 210 million people [3]. - The inventory turnover period in some cities has extended to 38 months, highlighting severe oversupply issues in the housing market [3]. Group 2: Developer Challenges - Real estate companies face a debt repayment scale of 3 trillion yuan in 2025, prompting even major players like Vanke to sell commercial assets to recover funds [4]. - Developers are adopting extreme measures to survive, including offering zero down payments and long-term price guarantees, with some even diversifying into unrelated businesses [4]. - The shift in focus from profit to survival is evident, as companies prioritize staying afloat amid the crisis [4]. Group 3: Government Response - The central government has initiated measures to accelerate the construction of affordable housing, aiming to build 6 million units within five years [4]. - The proportion of existing home sales has surged to 26.5% in 2025, with some projects selling out immediately upon launch [4]. - Tax reductions for second homes are being trialed in 60 cities, although challenges remain for investors in the market [4]. Group 4: Changing Consumer Behavior - The rental marriage rate has surpassed 40%, with many young couples opting to rent rather than buy, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences [4]. - New policies promoting "rent and purchase rights" are leading to the rapid expansion of long-term rental apartments, while smaller brands face intense price competition [4]. - Despite lower down payments and interest rates, industry insiders advise buyers to adhere to strict financial guidelines when purchasing property [5].