美联储降息救市！8月13日，今日凌晨五大消息已正式发酵

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are experiencing significant turmoil, driven by political statements and economic data, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy and the stability of the U.S. dollar [1][3][12]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 5%, and the probability of Federal Reserve Chair Powell being dismissed has risen to 26% [1]. - Gold prices surged by $20 per ounce, while the U.S. dollar index fell by 25 points, reflecting heightened market volatility [1]. - The Dow Jones index dropped nearly 1%, contrasting with the Nasdaq reaching a historic high, illustrating a split in market performance [6][12]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is facing internal divisions, with a 9:2 vote against the Chair's decision, marking the first public dissent since 1993 [3][4]. - There is a growing expectation for interest rate cuts, with predictions of a 25 basis point reduction in September, October, and December [8]. - The Fed's current debt burden stands at $37 trillion, with interest payments consuming a quarter of federal tax revenue [1][4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Core CPI has risen to 2.9%, with significant price increases in clothing (0.4%), furniture (1%), and appliances (1.9%) due to tariffs [4]. - The labor market shows mixed signals, with private sector job growth exceeding expectations but a rising unemployment rate attributed to a decrease in labor supply [6][7]. - The July non-farm payroll report revealed only 73,000 new jobs, significantly below expectations, leading to a sharp increase in the likelihood of rate cuts [7][8]. Group 4: Global Financial Trends - Central banks sold $36 billion in U.S. Treasuries in April and accumulated 280 tons of gold in the first half of the year, the highest in two decades [4]. - The trend towards "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum, with countries like Brazil and entities in the EU and ASEAN exploring alternatives to the U.S. dollar [4][12].