纳指涨296点新高！特朗普炮轰鲍威尔无能，央行何去何从？

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is experiencing dramatic fluctuations due to President Trump's public criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, demanding immediate interest rate cuts and threatening legal action against him, which raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][3][7]. Economic Data Impact - The catalyst for this turmoil was the release of July's inflation data on August 12, showing a 2.7% year-over-year increase in CPI, slightly below the expected 2.8%, and a 3.1% increase in core CPI, which, although above expectations, indicates a slowing overall inflation trend [1][3]. - Following the inflation data release, the Dow Jones surged by 483 points, the Nasdaq rose by 296 points, and the S&P 500 increased by 72 points, with both Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching all-time highs [1]. Market Reactions - Traders began to heavily bet on a September interest rate cut, with the probability of a cut rising from 85% to 91% according to CME data, leading analysts to assert that a rate cut is almost certain [3][5]. - Technology stocks were the main beneficiaries of this market rally, with Intel's stock rising over 5%, Meta increasing by more than 3%, and major companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Google also performing strongly [3][5]. Political Dynamics - Trump's unexpected intervention in the market, demanding rate cuts and criticizing Powell's management, has shocked the financial community, as it challenges the Federal Reserve's independence, a cornerstone of the U.S. financial system [3][7]. - The situation reflects a broader political and economic struggle, with Trump aiming to stimulate the economy for political gain while the Federal Reserve seeks to maintain its autonomy [7]. Expert Opinions - Economists from various firms have weighed in, with some viewing the inflation data as a positive sign for the Fed, while others predict continued rate cuts in upcoming meetings due to a weakening labor market [5][7]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of the Fed's actions in September and the potential long-term implications for its independence amid political pressures [5][7].