FPG财盛国际：黄金突然“变脸”！金价自日高回落17美元

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the Federal Reserve to initiate a series of interest rate cuts, which could support gold prices due to lower borrowing costs and declining yields [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has made a clear call for the Federal Reserve to begin a rate-cutting cycle, suggesting that the benchmark interest rate should be at least 1.5 percentage points lower than its current level [1]. - Bessent anticipates a series of rate cuts, starting with a 50 basis point reduction in September, indicating that rates may need to be lowered by 150 to 175 basis points according to various models [1]. Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - FPG analyst Felix notes that gold prices are currently hovering near the flat 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and have not been able to break through this level, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs remain positively inclined, limiting downside potential for gold [2]. - Another analyst, Chad, observes that gold has failed to maintain gains above the bearish 20-period SMA in the short term, indicating that buyers are still hesitant, with prices near the flat 100-period SMA and the 200-period SMA lacking direction [2]. Group 3: Technical Indicators - The daily chart for gold (XAUUSD) shows a bearish bias with resistance levels at 3369, 3379, and 3383, while support levels are at 3354, 3342, and 3332 [3]. - The momentum is strong, with a quantitative cycle greater than three years and a reference value of at least 67.1% [3].