恕我直言！海口二手房价，回到2018年……

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Haikou is experiencing a significant divergence between new and second-hand homes, with new homes showing signs of recovery while second-hand homes continue to decline sharply [1][3][6]. New Homes Market - Recent announcements regarding the closure of the Hainan Free Trade Port have positively impacted the new home market, leading to increased transactions in July and a strong start in August [1][3]. - A large number of new projects are preparing to enter the market, indicating a vibrant second half of the year for new homes [1]. Second-Hand Homes Market - The second-hand home market in Haikou is described as "undergoing tribulations," with prices dropping significantly [3][5]. - As of July, the average price for second-hand homes has fallen to 13,700 yuan per square meter, a level not seen since May 2018 [6][9]. - The decline in prices has been consistent, with 85% of over 1,500 neighborhoods experiencing price drops [3][7]. Price Trends - The price of second-hand homes has decreased from 14,300 yuan per square meter in June to 13,700 yuan in July, reflecting a downward trend over the past few years [9][10]. - The current price level is comparable to that of 2018, indicating a significant regression in the market [10][12]. Market Dynamics - The number of listings for second-hand homes has decreased dramatically, with only 29,640 units available, marking a significant drop from earlier in the year [15][17]. - The new listings in July were the lowest in six months, suggesting a shift in seller sentiment as many homeowners opt to hold onto their properties in anticipation of future price increases due to the upcoming trade port closure [19][21]. Buyer Sentiment - Buyer interest remains low, with many potential buyers hesitant to purchase due to fears of further price declines [26][28]. - The market is characterized by a strong sense of caution among buyers, leading to low transaction volumes despite falling prices [26][35]. Future Outlook - The upcoming closure of the Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to influence the market, but the potential for price recovery in the second-hand market remains uncertain due to various competitive factors, including new housing developments and changing buyer preferences [30][32][34]. - The overall demand for second-hand homes is limited, with a net population increase in Hainan being relatively modest, further constraining market growth [33][34].