ETO Markets 市场洞察：MACD现神秘红柱，油价要触底反弹？

Group 1 - Oil prices showed a moderate recovery on Thursday, with Brent crude futures rising by $0.28 to $65.91 per barrel, an increase of 0.43%, and WTI crude futures up by $0.23 to $62.89 per barrel, an increase of 0.37% [1] - Geopolitical risks are currently a core variable in the market, with the upcoming US-Russia presidential meeting raising risk premiums. Trump warned of "serious consequences" for Russia if no peace consensus is reached on Ukraine, including potential economic sanctions [3] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts in its September meeting, with a nearly 100% probability of a rate cut, and an increasing likelihood of a 50 basis point reduction [3] Group 2 - The EIA reported an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories by 3 million barrels for the week ending August 8, significantly exceeding market expectations of a decrease of 275,000 barrels [3] - IEA's latest forecast indicates that global oil supply growth in 2025 and 2026 will exceed expectations, driven mainly by OPEC+ production plans and non-OPEC countries' capacity expansion [3] - Technical analysis shows that WTI crude prices found initial support around $62.50 per barrel, with resistance near the $64.20-$64.50 range, close to the 20-day moving average [4] Group 3 - The oil market is currently in a tug-of-war between bullish geopolitical risks and dovish monetary policy expectations, while inventory accumulation and supply expansion exert downward pressure [6] - Short-term volatility will largely depend on the outcome of the US-Russia meeting and the Federal Reserve's policy path in September [6]