9月降息概率逼近95%!瑞银料美联储开启“连降”周期至2026

Group 1 - The market is increasingly expecting the Federal Reserve to restart its accommodative monetary policy, with a nearly 95% probability of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 17, up from less than 60% a month ago [1] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, leading to discussions about further rate cuts, with some advocating for a 50 basis point cut in a single move [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bencet has publicly stated that the Federal Reserve should consider more aggressive easing policies to address economic challenges [1] Group 2 - UBS predicts that the Federal Reserve will officially restart the rate cut process next month, with expectations of 25 basis point cuts at each policy meeting until January 2026, totaling a cumulative reduction of 100 basis points [1] - The shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy environment by the Federal Reserve is expected to support the stock market, high-quality bonds, and safe-haven assets like gold [1] Group 3 - UBS recommends investors to adopt a highly diversified investment portfolio to mitigate market volatility and create conditions for long-term returns [2] - For investors with appropriate risk tolerance and the ability to manage unique risks associated with alternative investments, hedge funds and private markets are also suggested as potential investment channels [2]