就业疲软+通胀温和，美联储9月降息概率超90%，这些行业或将受益

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in September, with a 94.3% probability of a rate cut, following weak employment data and moderate inflation figures [1] - Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan predict three consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points each in September, October, and December [1] - Citigroup forecasts that the policy rate will drop to 3%, with risks leaning towards even lower rates [1] Group 2 - Various industries are anticipated to benefit from the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, including: - Non-bank sectors, which are expected to directly benefit from improved liquidity in the capital markets [1] - The metals industry, which may see increased demand as the global economy recovers [1] - The gold sector, historically performing well during rate cut cycles, is expected to attract more investment [1] - Export-oriented equipment sectors, which may experience a replenishment cycle due to low overseas inventories [1] - The shipping industry, which could benefit from increased oil transport demand as OPEC+ increases production [1] Group 3 - The consumer sector showed strong performance following the rate cut announcement, with several food companies experiencing significant stock price increases [3] - Notable stock performances included: - Huifa Food: +10.04% with a market cap of 1.957 billion [4] - Qianwei Central Kitchen: +9.99% with a market cap of 2.318 billion [4] - Aiyingshi: +9.99% with a market cap of 1.602 billion [4] Group 4 - Relevant companies in the non-bank sector include: - Brokerage and fintech: Tonghuashun, Huatai Securities, China Galaxy [5] - Insurance: Ping An Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, New China Life, China Life Insurance [5] - Companies related to the real estate cycle include: - Tools: Juxing Technology [5] - Home appliances: TCL Technology, Hisense Visual, Haier Smart Home [5] - Gold sector companies include: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Zhongjin Gold [5] - Engineering machinery companies include: Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG [5]