穆迪首席经济学家发出警告：美国经济处于衰退边缘

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is on the brink of recession, with significant warnings from Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi regarding employment data and economic indicators [1][3]. Employment Data - Although the U.S. has not yet entered a technical recession, the labor market shows signs of distress, with employment data stagnating since May [3]. - Over 53% of industries reported layoffs in July, indicating a potential recessionary signal [3]. - The U.S. unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000 [5]. Economic Policies - Zandi attributes the economic downturn to policies from the Trump administration, particularly tariffs and immigration policies, which are seen as major contributors to the current economic challenges [5]. - There is a possibility of improvement if detrimental economic policies are lifted quickly, but this seems increasingly unlikely [5]. Job Market Adjustments - Recent revisions to employment data have shown a substantial downward adjustment, with May and June's job additions revised down from 144,000 and 147,000 to 19,000 and 14,000, respectively, indicating a cooling job market [5].