研报掘金丨华鑫证券：贵州茅台年达成营收目标可期，维持“买入”评级

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's net profit for H1 2025 is projected to be 45.403 billion yuan, reflecting a 9% year-on-year increase, with Q2 net profit at 18.555 billion yuan, up 5% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor reached 32.032 billion yuan and 6.740 billion yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 10.99% for Moutai liquor and a decline of 6.53% for series liquor [1] - Moutai liquor's revenue proportion increased by 2.61 percentage points to 82.62% [1] Product Insights - The growth in Moutai liquor revenue is attributed to the increased distribution of kilogram packages, which saw rapid growth in Q2 [1] - The decline in series liquor revenue is primarily due to a high base from the same period in 2024 [1] Distribution and Market Expansion - As of the end of H1 2025, the company has 2,395 distributors, a net increase of 148 since the beginning of the year [1] - International revenue is growing rapidly, with Q2 domestic and international revenues at 36.998 billion yuan and 1.774 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 6.68% and 27.64% [1] - The proportion of international revenue increased by 0.72 percentage points to 4.58% [1] Operational Resilience - Despite sales pressure, the company maintained performance resilience in Q2, with channel pressure kept at a healthy level [1] - The company plans to continue fine-tuning distribution strategies and optimizing the distributor structure to achieve annual revenue targets [1]