大摩警告内存市场转变：看空HBM“溢价神话”，看多传统存储“周期归来”

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley warns of a significant shift in the global memory market, with challenges to the "premium myth" of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and a cyclical recovery opportunity for traditional storage products [1] Group 1: HBM Market Dynamics - The pricing environment for HBM is rapidly changing, with significant market share shifts and increased competition expected by 2026 [1][3] - Current negotiations for HBM3E pricing are around $440 per cubic inch (approximately $1.69/Gb), while HBM4 pricing is set between $590-$600 (approximately $2.3-$2.34/Gb) [3] - Samsung's advancements in HBM4 production and its early samples sent to major clients indicate a potential disruption to SK Hynix's market dominance [4] Group 2: Traditional Storage Market Outlook - The DRAM market is experiencing pricing pressure, with a slowdown in contract price increases observed in Q3 [5] - For DDR5 products, server clients accepted a 2-3% quarter-over-quarter price increase, while some PC clients are willing to accept higher prices to build inventory [5] - The NAND market shows a mixed trend, with Q3 contract pricing increasing by 3-5%, lower than previous expectations, and varying demand across different customer segments [7][10] Group 3: Future Projections - The outlook for Q4 indicates a further slowdown in contract price increases for DDR5, with AI demand supporting some price stability for server clients [7] - Enterprise SSD pricing is expected to rise by 0-5% in Q4, driven by strong demand, particularly in AI infrastructure [10] - Morgan Stanley favors traditional commodity memory over HBM products, especially traditional DRAM, due to macroeconomic factors and potential Fed rate cuts [10]