大摩警告内存市场：看空HBM溢价神话，看多传统存储周期归来

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley warns of a significant shift in the global memory market, with challenges to the "premium myth" of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and a cyclical recovery opportunity for traditional storage products [1] Group 1: HBM Market Dynamics - The pricing environment for HBM is rapidly changing, with increased competition expected to lead to a significant market share shift by 2026 [1][3] - Current pricing negotiations for HBM3E are around $440 per cubic inch ($1.69/Gb), while HBM4 pricing is set between $590-$600 ($2.3-$2.34/Gb), but may face further discount pressures if Samsung gains certification [3][4] - SK Hynix's market share in the Nvidia segment is projected to drop from 85-90% in 2025 to over 50% in 2026 due to intensified competition from Samsung and Micron [3] Group 2: Traditional Storage Market Outlook - The DRAM market is experiencing short-term pricing pressures, with contract pricing growth slowing in Q3, particularly for DDR5 products [5][7] - The fourth quarter is expected to see further slowing in contract pricing growth, with most consumer electronics customers maintaining stable DDR5 prices, while AI demand supports low to mid-single-digit price increases for server customers [7][10] - The NAND market shows a clear divergence, with Q3 contract pricing rising 3-5%, lower than previous expectations, and enterprise SSD demand expected to remain strong into 2026 [7][10] Group 3: Macro Factors Impacting Memory Stocks - Morgan Stanley favors traditional commodity memory over HBM products, particularly traditional DRAM, due to favorable macroeconomic factors [11] - Positive U.S. CPI data is raising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which could lead to a market rotation towards undervalued traditional memory stocks if economic growth expectations improve [11]