周鸿祎狂赚6倍！“国产伟哥”能否救得了旺山旺水的“新冠药后遗症”？｜创新药观察

Core Viewpoint - The company, Wangshan Wangshui, is facing a critical financial situation despite the recent approval of its product, TPN171, and an accelerated IPO process. The company has experienced a dramatic decline in revenue and cash flow, raising concerns about its reliance on a single product and the sustainability of its business model [2][3][5]. Financial Performance - Wangshan Wangshui's revenue peaked at 199.7 million RMB in 2023 but plummeted to 11.8 million RMB in 2024, with a further decline to 3.2 million RMB in the first four months of 2025 [7]. - The company reported a net profit of 642,700 RMB in 2023, but this turned into a loss of 21.8 million RMB in 2024, with losses continuing at 11.2 million RMB in early 2025 [7][11]. - The revenue from external licensing dropped by 97% in 2024, highlighting the company's over-reliance on its COVID-19 treatment, VV116, which has since seen a significant decline in sales [5][6]. Product Pipeline and Market Position - Wangshan Wangshui has developed a pipeline of nine innovative assets, focusing on viral infections, neuropsychiatry, and reproductive health, with VV116, LV232, and TPN171 being the most notable products [3]. - TPN171, recently approved for market, is seen as a potential key product for the IPO, but faces intense competition from established products like Viagra and Cialis, which dominate over 99% of the market [8][10]. Revenue Structure and Risks - The company's revenue structure is heavily dependent on external licensing, CRO services, drug sales, and intellectual property transfers, none of which provide a stable foundation for sustainable operations [6][8]. - The sales of generic drugs, which are driving current revenue growth, are in a highly competitive market with narrow profit margins, contrasting sharply with the company's high valuation of 4.4 billion RMB [8][10]. Debt and Cash Flow Challenges - As of April 2025, the company had 72.8 million RMB in cash against 231 million RMB in current liabilities, indicating a significant liquidity crisis [11][12]. - The company's cash flow has been negative, with a net outflow of 109 million RMB in 2024, leading to concerns about its operational sustainability and ability to meet financial obligations [11]. Production Capacity and Expansion Plans - Despite a 98% idle production capacity, Wangshan Wangshui plans to expand its facilities, raising questions about the feasibility of such investments given the current market demand [13][14]. - The company has established a new production facility in Lianyungang with a designed capacity far exceeding market needs, which could lead to increased financial strain if product commercialization does not meet expectations [13][14].