若美联储今年降息，如此罕见的“通胀与降息”组合，上一次是在2007年下半年

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a rare scenario where the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates while inflation rises, with a near 100% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September and at least two cuts expected for the remainder of the year [1][3] Group 1: Inflation and Interest Rate Dynamics - The report indicates that even with a modest month-on-month CPI increase of 0.1%, the year-on-year CPI could rise to approximately 2.9% by the end of the year, up from 2.3%-2.4% in the first half [1][3] - Historically, the combination of rising inflation and falling interest rates is rare, occurring only 16% of the time since 1973 [1][7] - The analysis suggests that the core PCE price index may show an upward trend in year-on-year metrics even earlier than the CPI [5] Group 2: Historical Context and Market Reactions - The last occurrence of the Fed cutting rates amid rising inflation was from late 2007 to early 2008, driven by rising energy and food prices impacting overall inflation [7] - In scenarios where inflation rises while rates fall, the dollar typically depreciates, with an average decline of 1.6% over six months [8] - The dollar's performance in 2025 is expected to correlate closely with the trends observed in 2007, potentially leading to the largest annual decline since 1999 [8] Group 3: Currency Pair Sensitivity - The USD/JPY currency pair, which is highly sensitive to U.S. interest rates, is likely to experience the most significant declines in this scenario [10]