芦哲：过于乐观的降息预期——2025年7月美国CPI数据点评

Core Insights - The US July CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, and the core CPI rose by 0.32%, both meeting expectations. This marks the end of five consecutive months of core CPI underperformance [1][2] - Year-on-year, the CPI was expected to rise by 2.8% but actually increased by 2.7%, while the core CPI was expected to rise by 3.0% but increased by 3.06%. The discrepancies are attributed to seasonal adjustments and rounding issues [1][2] - The inflation structure indicates a rebound in used car prices, tariff impacts on furniture and auto parts, and fluctuations in airline ticket prices and hotel rates, contributing to the inflation rebound this month [1][3] Inflation Structure - Core goods CPI month-on-month increased slightly from 0.20% to 0.21%, with furniture, clothing, and leisure goods showing varying degrees of decline. Transportation goods improved from -0.38% to 0.22%, with both new and used car prices rebounding [3] - Housing inflation saw a rise in residential services from 0.18% to 0.23%, with owner-equivalent rent (OER) and rent price rent (RPR) increasing to 0.28% and 0.26%, respectively, returning to pre-pandemic levels [3] - Super core CPI rebounded significantly from 0.21% to 0.48%, driven by contributions from medical insurance and transportation [3] Market Reaction - Following the July CPI data release, interest rate cut expectations increased, leading to a decline in the 2-year US Treasury yield to 3.72%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.31%, with the 10-year real yield reaching 1.93% [4] - The market narrative shifted to "moderate inflation → increased rate cut expectations → improved growth outlook," resulting in a drop in the dollar index below 98 and a decline in gold prices, while US stocks and silver prices rose [4] Trading Strategy - Current market expectations for rate cuts are overly optimistic, with a projected 2.4 cuts/61 basis points for the year. The optimistic scenario suggests two cuts (in September and December), while the pessimistic scenario suggests one cut (in October) [5] - The current pricing of 61 basis points for rate cuts indicates at least an 11 basis point adjustment potential. Overly optimistic rate cut expectations imply upward risks for the dollar index and short-term interest rates [5] - Future gold price increases may stem from "inflation exceeding expectations → delayed rate cut expectations → increased economic pressure → downward revision of growth outlook" [5]