Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-14 09:16Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that WH Group's (00288) China packaged meat business sales are expected to increase by 1% year-on-year in Q2 2025, driven by precise sales strategies, new channel expansion, and regional market recovery [1] - The forecast for 2025 and 2026 earnings has been raised by 3% and 2% respectively, reflecting a stronger outlook for the U.S. business, with the target price increased from HKD 8.7 to HKD 9.6; it is anticipated that revenue and profit margins in the Chinese business will improve in the second half of the year [1] - Management expects growth momentum to strengthen in the second half of the year, with sales recovery offsetting the weak performance in the first half; despite rising marketing and labor costs, falling pork prices and improved operational efficiency are expected to support record-high profits, projected at RMB 4,700 per ton [1] Group 2 - In the U.S. market, stable hog prices and declining feed costs indicate robust momentum and a positive outlook; pork demand remains resilient compared to beef and chicken [1] - Smithfield, a subsidiary, has raised its full-year operating profit guidance by over 3.8% to USD 1.15 billion to USD 1.35 billion, while continuing to reduce underperforming farms and maintaining a mid-term production target of 10 million hogs [1] - Although packaged meat may face profit pressure due to rising pork prices, management plans to alleviate this through price adjustments, product mix optimization, and cost control to support ongoing profit margin expansion in the U.S. business [1] Group 3 - In Europe, the group is focusing on high-margin, high-growth product categories to drive long-term growth; management plans to fill product gaps through acquisitions, prioritizing pan-European brands [2] - With sales expected to exceed 400,000 tons this year, the group aims to improve profitability per ton to levels close to those in the U.S. and China through product mix and operational improvements [2]