降息预期碾压空头！两年期美债收益率三个月新低在望

Group 1 - The yield on short-term U.S. Treasury bonds is nearing its lowest point in over three months, indicating traders' expectations for the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts next month [1] - The two-year Treasury yield is hovering around 3.67%, down nearly 30 basis points since late July, primarily following the release of disappointing non-farm payroll data [1] - The core support for the market's strength is based on investor expectations that Federal Reserve officials will implement the first interest rate cut of the year during the September meeting, influenced by ongoing pressure from President Trump [1] Group 2 - The ten-year Treasury yield has also declined to around 4.22%, down 15 basis points since late July, showing a mild downward trend [3] - Market sentiment has significantly reversed compared to two weeks ago, when the probability of a rate cut in September was below 50%, a shift triggered by the release of weak employment reports [3] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet has joined the call for rate cuts, suggesting a 50 basis point cut in December may be appropriate, and stated that rates "should be lowered by 150 to 175 basis points" [3]