【环球财经】高盛预测美联储今年降息三次

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points, and two more times next year [1][4] - After these five rate cuts, the federal funds rate will be reduced to a range of 3% to 3.25%, down from the current level of 4.25% to 4.5% [4] - As of August 13, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 93%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 7% [4] Group 2 - The probability of a 50 basis point cut in September increased due to comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset, who advocates for significant rate cuts [4][5] - Recent employment data has shown a notable decline, with July's non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000 [4] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, indicating a cooling labor market [4]