制裁升级？关税加压？特普会前市场如坐针毡

Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, indicated that if the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin fails, the U.S. may intensify sanctions against Russia, including the potential for secondary tariffs [1][3] - Following Mnuchin's comments, international oil prices reacted, with Brent crude reaching $66.30 and WTI crude above $63.10 before experiencing a decline after Trump's remarks [3][5] - Analysts noted that geopolitical factors are driving oil prices, particularly in light of the uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine situation [5][7] Economic Insights and Consumer Impact - Goldman Sachs reported that the burden of tariff costs is increasingly falling on U.S. consumers, with their share expected to rise from 22% to 67% by October [5][7] - The firm projected that the PCE price index would increase to 3.2% year-over-year by December, up from 2.6% in June [5][7] - Trump's criticism of Goldman Sachs highlighted a disconnect between his views on tariffs and the economic realities presented by the firm [5][7] Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Outlook - Goldman Sachs' chief economist, David Mericle, stated that if tariffs follow a similar trajectory as in February, consumers will bear a significant portion of the costs [7] - Mericle suggested that the Federal Reserve may consider minor interest rate cuts, but these would not significantly alter overall monetary policy [7] - Mnuchin also commented on the Federal Reserve, suggesting that current interest rates should be lower by 150 to 175 basis points, indicating a potential for rate cuts if data supports it [7]