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Core Points - The recent breakdown in US-India trade negotiations highlights the deep-seated contradictions between the two nations, particularly regarding tariffs and market access [3][5] - India's strategic positioning as a balancing power between the US and China is increasingly challenged, leading to significant economic repercussions [13][27] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Since the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the US in April 2025, five rounds of trade talks have taken place, with India hoping to replicate its success with the UAE [3] - The US demands, including reducing IT product tariffs from 15% to zero and opening dairy markets, exceed what India can accept without domestic backlash [5][8] - The increase in tariffs on Indian goods by the US is expected to reduce India's GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points and could lead to a 15% loss in the textile market share in the US [14] Group 2: Strategic Conflicts - The US views India as a key player in its Indo-Pacific strategy, pushing for compliance in supply chain restructuring, while India seeks to maintain strategic autonomy [5][13] - India's reliance on Russian oil has increased significantly, with imports rising by 217% in 2024, which has drawn criticism from the US [7] - The contrasting positions of India and China in the global supply chain, particularly in rare earth elements, have left India at a disadvantage in negotiations [9][20] Group 3: Economic Impact - The US's tariffs on Indian exports have diminished India's competitiveness in sectors like pharmaceuticals and textiles, leading to a significant decline in export volumes [11][23] - India's manufacturing sector, which accounted for only 17% of GDP in 2024, lacks the technological edge to compete effectively with China [20] - The depreciation of the Indian rupee and declining foreign reserves further exacerbate India's economic challenges, prompting a need for economic assistance from China [23][25] Group 4: Diplomatic Relations - Modi's balancing act between the US and China has become increasingly precarious, with recent diplomatic overtures to China seen as a desperate attempt to secure economic support [15][27] - China's response to Modi's visit emphasizes a multilateral approach rather than bilateral concessions, indicating a shift in diplomatic dynamics [25] - The evolving geopolitical landscape suggests that countries attempting to navigate great power rivalries without substantial leverage may face severe consequences [27]