美国法官救了全世界？关税被叫停，特朗普愤怒上诉，还有5个变量

Core Viewpoint - A U.S. federal court ruled that President Trump does not have the authority to unilaterally impose global tariffs, declaring such actions illegal, which has led to a positive reaction in global stock markets [1][12]. Group 1: Legal Ruling and Implications - The International Trade Court determined that Trump's tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act lack a clear legal basis, as this law is intended for national security threats, not for imposing tariffs [3][5]. - The court concluded that long-standing trade deficits cannot be classified as a national emergency, thus Trump's bypassing Congress to impose tariffs is unconstitutional [5][12]. - The ruling was influenced by a coalition of small U.S. businesses adversely affected by the tariffs, who argued that Trump's actions constituted an abuse of presidential power [8][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the court's decision, U.S. stock index futures rose sharply, and global markets also experienced gains, indicating investor optimism regarding a potential easing of tariff policies [12][14]. - The ruling is seen as a positive development for alleviating supply chain tensions and rising business costs, which have been exacerbated by tariffs [14][39]. Group 3: Future Legal Considerations - The case is likely to be appealed to the federal appellate court and potentially the Supreme Court, where a conservative majority may support Trump's policies [16][18]. - Trump's team may invoke the Trade Expansion Act of 1974, specifically Section 232, to justify tariffs on national security grounds, a strategy previously employed during his administration [20][28]. - Historical precedents, such as Nixon's temporary tariff imposition during an economic crisis, may be referenced in legal arguments to defend Trump's actions [22][30]. Group 4: Political Dynamics - The current Republican majority in Congress may provide legislative support for Trump's tariff policies, potentially facilitating new laws to reinforce his actions [24][32]. - International trade partners, including the EU, Japan, and Mexico, are maintaining a cautious approach, continuing negotiations with the U.S. while monitoring legal developments [26][35]. Group 5: Broader Implications - The court's ruling could redefine the boundaries of presidential authority in trade policy, emphasizing the need for congressional approval for tariff imposition [37][39]. - The outcome of this legal dispute will not only impact Trump's administration but may also set a precedent for future administrations regarding trade powers [39].