Core Viewpoint - Credit Lyonnais has lowered the target price for Samsonite (01910) from HKD 22 to HKD 21, maintaining a price-to-earnings ratio of 13 times for the next 12 months, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 13.6% for net profit from 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, Samsonite's fixed exchange rate sales decreased by 5.8% year-on-year, aligning with the bank's expectations, while reported sales fell by 4.8%, benefiting from favorable foreign exchange [1] - The bank anticipates a 6% decline in sales for the first half of the year, with a projected 4% decrease in sales for the second half, supported by foreign exchange fluctuations and price increases [1] - The management is expected to maintain stable gross margins for the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Profitability and Forecasts - The report predicts that adjusted EBITDA margin for the second half will increase by 20 basis points to 16.4% due to cost savings [1] - Sales and gross margin forecasts for 2025 to 2027 remain largely unchanged, but net profit estimates have been reduced by 5% to 7% due to the impact of stock-based compensation on tax rates [1] - Management has indicated that net sales will continue to improve in Q3 and the second half, despite low visibility for Q4 [1] Group 3: Market Position and Outlook - Credit Lyonnais maintains a "highly confident outperform" rating for Samsonite, citing low valuation, continuous improvement potential, and dual listing opportunities [1] - The bank expects non-US regions, foreign exchange, and price increases to support reported sales [1]
里昂：降新秀丽目标价至21港元 维持“高度确信跑赢大市”评级