建银国际:中国医药股估值虽高仍审慎乐观 予百济神州等“跑赢大市”评级

Group 1 - The investment bank maintains a cautiously optimistic view on the Chinese pharmaceutical industry, noting a 137% average increase in Hong Kong biotech stocks since early 2025, driven by cash returns from innovative drug licensing deals [1] - Recent pullbacks in the industry are attributed to disappointing sales figures from major biotech companies and concerns over potential phased drug tariffs proposed by Trump, which could reach 150% within a year and ultimately 250% [1] - The bank's preferred focus is on innovative sectors with strong performance in the first half of 2025, highlighting BeiGene (06160) with a target price of HKD 230 and a rating of "outperform" due to its strong half-year results and improved gross margin guidance [1] Group 2 - The bank expects CanSino Biologics (09926) to report adjusted earnings of RMB 23 million in the first half of 2025, benefiting from revenue growth from its drugs AK104 and AK112, with a rating of "outperform" [1] - The target price for Innovent Biologics (01801) has been raised by 10% from HKD 100 to HKD 110, with a rating of "outperform," reflecting confidence in the company's projected 37% year-on-year growth in product revenue [1] - The bank continues to focus on licensing deals for innovative drugs in China, anticipating more subsidies for high-priced innovative drugs, which may drive sales growth for companies like Kintor Pharmaceutical (02171), Fosun Pharma (600196) (02196), WuXi AppTec (02126), and Kerenor Biotech (06990) [2]