Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-08-14 09:54Group 1: Core Insights - Citigroup has raised TSMC's CoWoS capacity forecast from 800,000 to 870,000 units by 2026, driven by strong AI demand and larger chip sizes [1] - Despite some downstream ODM manufacturers showing weak guidance, supply chain leaders like Hon Hai remain optimistic, with Nvidia's wafer revenue expected to grow over 50% year-on-year by 2026 [1] - Cloud service providers' ASIC development plans are identified as a second growth engine for TSMC, expanding advanced packaging demand into more applications like server CPUs [1][5] Group 2: AI Infrastructure Complexity - The complexity of AI infrastructure is increasing, with power consumption for AI systems potentially reaching 800-900 kW per rack by 2027/2028, raising demands on cooling and power systems [2] - The importance of high-speed serial and parallel interfaces (SerDes I/O) is growing, leading to more network switch chips and server CPUs adopting advanced packaging technologies [2] - Leading suppliers in the AI supply chain are expected to enjoy better growth prospects due to the increasing complexity of chip and system design [2] Group 3: Nvidia's Product Iteration - Nvidia's GB200 remains the primary configuration for AI data centers, with the GB300 expected to ramp up in Q4 2025 [3] - The next-generation system, Vera Rubin, is anticipated to be officially launched at the 2026 GTC conference and will utilize advanced N3 process GPUs and higher memory densities [3] Group 4: Cloud Providers' ASIC Accelerators - Google and AWS are leading in the development of self-developed ecosystems among cloud service providers, with ASIC chip shipments expected to reach 400,000 to 500,000 units by 2026 [4] - Google is collaborating with MediaTek for its TPU supply chain, while AWS's Trainium 3 is expected to achieve larger-scale production in the second half of 2026 [4] - Microsoft is slower in developing its own AI ASICs but is resuming activities related to the Maia 300, with small-scale production expected next year [4] Group 5: Advanced Packaging Demand Expansion - The application of advanced packaging technology is expanding beyond AI accelerators to include network switch chips and server CPUs, providing more growth opportunities for TSMC [5] - The increasing complexity of systems and data transmission requirements are raising industry entry barriers, allowing leading suppliers to gain competitive advantages [5] - Factors such as larger chip sizes and the ramp-up of ASIC accelerators in the second half of 2026 are supporting the optimistic outlook for TSMC's CoWoS capacity [5]