智昇黄金原油分析：市场屏息待变 静等美俄谈判

Group 1: Gold Market - Federal Reserve officials Goolsbee and Bostic expressed cautious views on interest rate cuts, impacting gold price increases [1] - Market is currently awaiting developments from the upcoming US-Russia talks, which may influence gold price volatility [1] - Technical analysis indicates a small upward movement in gold prices, with support at $3325 and resistance at $3375 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - IEA forecasts a record oversupply of global oil in the coming year, with refinery output nearing historical highs [3] - Predictions for global oil supply growth have been revised upward for both 2025 and 2026, indicating a continued expansion in supply [3] - Political developments from US-Russia talks could lead to significant fluctuations in oil prices, especially if constructive agreements are reached [3] Group 3: Dollar Index and Interest Rates - US Treasury Secretary Yellen indicated that current interest rates are too restrictive and suggested a potential series of rate cuts starting with a 50 basis point reduction in September [4] - The dollar index is currently trading within a range of 97-100, with key support at 97.50 and resistance at 98.10 [5] Group 4: Market Overview - The Trump administration is considering 3-4 candidates for the next Federal Reserve chair [6] - Russia plans to extend oil production cuts through the remainder of 2025 [7] - IEA's report highlights a significant oversupply of oil expected next year [8]