特朗普难以如愿？美联储激进降息的门槛还很高！

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent advocates for a bold action from the Federal Reserve, suggesting a 50 basis point rate cut in September, followed by further reductions to significantly lower borrowing costs from the current range of 4.25% to 4.5% [1][2] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a moderate overall increase, providing a rationale for a potential rate cut, but rising service sector prices raised concerns about whether this is a temporary fluctuation or a more troubling trend [2][6] - The core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and energy prices, experienced its largest monthly increase since the beginning of the year, driven by rising service sector costs, which increased by 3.1% year-over-year [6][7] - Despite the overall inflation rate stabilizing at 2.7%, the significant rise in service prices, including a notable increase in dental services, has led economists to question the sustainability of this trend [6][7] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Policy Divergence - There is a sharp division among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate policy, making consensus difficult without clear evidence of a severe economic downturn [3][4] - The decision to maintain rates in July was one of the most controversial in decades, with two members voting against it in favor of a 25 basis point cut, highlighting the impact of tariffs and labor market conditions on inflation [3][4] - Some officials, like San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, have begun to support a return to rate cuts due to rising labor market risks and lower-than-expected inflation [4][5] Group 3: Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a recent poor employment report prompting more officials to advocate for rate cuts, despite some caution regarding inflation [4][5] - The definition of a "weak labor market" has evolved, with recent slowdowns in job growth potentially reflecting reduced labor supply rather than decreased demand [7][8] - Concerns have been raised that cutting rates in a structurally changing labor market could exacerbate inflationary pressures, as the economy may lack capacity due to labor shortages [8]