通胀全面“爆表”！美国7月PP环比飙升至0.9%，创三年新高，同比升至3.3%

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July increased significantly, with a year-over-year rise from 2.3% to 3.3%, marking the highest level since February and exceeding expectations of 2.5% [1] - Core PPI also saw a notable increase, rising to 3.7% year-over-year, the highest since February, against an expectation of 3% and a previous value of 2.6% [2] - The increase in service costs reached its highest level in three years, with a 1.1% rise, driven by a 2% increase in wholesale and retail profit margins [4] Market Reactions - Following the PPI data release, U.S. stock index futures declined, with the Nasdaq futures down 0.36%, S&P 500 futures down 0.35%, and Dow futures down 0.29% [3] - The U.S. dollar index saw a short-term increase of 0.21%, while spot gold prices fell by 0.32% [3] - Traders reduced bets on the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September due to the inflation data [3] Economic Implications - The PPI components are crucial for calculating the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index favored by the Federal Reserve, with energy prices accelerating due to rising oil prices [6] - Despite a softening demand in the first half of the year, businesses are adjusting pricing strategies to offset higher U.S. tariffs, which will be a key factor in determining the interest rate path [8] - Federal Reserve officials expect that import tariffs will increase inflation in the second half of the year, but there is disagreement on whether this impact will be temporary or more persistent [8]