美国初请失业金数小幅降至22.4万 续请人数高居195万暗藏就业隐忧

Core Insights - The recent unemployment claims data presents a complex signal regarding the labor market's adjustment under policy pressures, with initial claims decreasing to 224,000, below market expectations of 228,000, indicating a continuation of low volatility trends [1] - Despite a cooling hiring sentiment due to economic uncertainties from tariff policies, employers have not initiated large-scale layoffs, as evidenced by the average monthly job additions of only 35,000 over the past three months [1] - The continuing high level of continuing claims at 1.95 million suggests that some unemployed individuals are facing prolonged job search periods, aligning with predictions of a slight increase in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3% [1] Policy and Market Reactions - Recent data has prompted policy changes, including the dismissal of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics director following significant downward revisions of employment data for May and June, with a controversial nominee, EJ. Anthony, proposed for the position [1] - Financial markets are anticipating a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, although rising service sector inflation and tariff-induced price pressures may influence the pace of policy adjustments [1] Regional Employment Trends - The four-week moving average of initial claims remains stable at 221,800, while actual claims in regions like Massachusetts have shown an uptick, indicating a divergence in regional labor markets [2]