PP：下游开工率回升 预计近期震荡运行建议反套

Core Insights - The PP downstream operating rate has increased by 0.50 percentage points to 48.9%, which is still low compared to historical levels [1] - The operating rate for plastic weaving remains stable at 41.1%, with a slight decrease in orders, slightly higher than the same period in the previous two years [1] - The overall PP industry is experiencing a lack of significant policy changes, leading to minimal fluctuations in the current market [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The operating rate of PP enterprises is maintained at around 84.5%, indicating a neutral market condition [1] - Recent maintenance activities have been minimal, and the production ratio for standard filament remains steady at approximately 30% [1] - Inventory levels are high compared to recent years, with general destocking in the petrochemical sector [1] Cost Factors - Unexpected U.S. non-farm employment data and OPEC+ production increases of 548,000 barrels per day in September are influencing cost dynamics [1] - The potential for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and adjustments by EIA and IEA regarding global oil surplus have contributed to a decline in crude oil prices [1] Market Outlook - The upcoming rainy and hot season is expected to slow down downstream recovery, with plastic weaving operating rates remaining stable and new orders being limited [1] - The current market is characterized by high inventory pressure and a focus on just-in-time purchasing [1] - The PP industry is anticipated to experience a period of fluctuation, with a recommendation for a 09 - 01 reverse spread strategy [1]