Google Stock May Pop 325% As Breakup Cuts $67 Billion From Synergies

Core Viewpoint - Google's stock could potentially rise 325% by 2035 if the company is broken up into five parts, but this breakup could result in a loss of $67 billion in revenue lift and cost savings due to the loss of operational synergies [2][6]. Group 1: Antitrust and Breakup Analysis - A judge is expected to order Google to take action following a guilty verdict in an antitrust trial, with potential divestiture of the Chrome browser being considered [3]. - Analysts estimate that if Alphabet is split into five independent businesses, its total value could reach $3.7 trillion, with specific valuations for each business unit [6]. - The breakup analysis does not account for the value derived from the companies being under the same corporate parent, which could lead to significant losses in customer benefits [8]. Group 2: Valuations of Business Units - The search and advertising unit is valued at $2.4 trillion based on a revenue multiple of 9.7x applied to its $250 billion annual revenue [7]. - Google Cloud is estimated to be worth $575 billion, with varying estimates ranging from $549 billion to $682 billion [12]. - YouTube's valuation is pegged at $513 billion, while Waymo is estimated at $180 billion, with a wide range of estimates from $60 billion to $300 billion [12]. Group 3: Ecosystem Benefits and Strategic Recommendations - The ecosystem benefits of keeping the various units together are estimated to be worth $67 billion, highlighting the importance of network effects and cost efficiencies [10][9]. - A strategic middle path could optimize benefits for shareholders and customers, potentially doubling Alphabet's market capitalization to about $6.9 billion by 2035 [10]. - Recommendations include spinning off Waymo, separating Google Cloud, and maintaining an integrated consumer ecosystem to preserve user experience benefits [13].