AI 光提速：重视硅光链和谷歌链 20260122 摘要 800G 和 1.6T 光模块需求激增，上游 EML 芯片短缺推动硅光光模块渗 透率加速提升，硅光芯片和 CW 芯片供应相对充足。 硅光产业链投资机会聚焦于硅光器件、模块及引擎，以及配套工艺设备 和软件厂商。中际旭创、新易盛等龙头企业有望受益，罗伯特科的耦合 设备和杰普特的检测设备值得关注。 台积电 2025 年第四季度营收超预期，毛利率提升，并大幅增加 2026 年资本开支预算，表明全球 AI 芯片需求强劲，利好 800G/1.6T 高速模 组及液冷产业。 英伟达在 CES 上发布 VeloRoulette 机柜及 CPO 交换机，以太网 CPU 交换机采用双 ASIC 设计，支持 102.4T 带宽，推动 CPO 方案发展，利 好硅光产业链及液冷需求。 谷歌链涉及 1.6T 光模块（中际旭创、新易盛、源杰科技），液冷市场 （英维克），服务器电源升级（欧陆通），OCS（腾景科技、聚焦科 技）和 MPO 连接器市场（长飞纤维）。 谷歌生态系统进入正循环，持续拉动 AI 算力需求，各方保障 TPU 产能， 以满足市场增长。 Q&A 台积电近期业绩表现如何 ...

Core Insights - Google's Gemini is gaining significant traction in the AI landscape, with Apple selecting it to enhance Siri's capabilities [1] - The development of Gemini has been a long-term effort, leveraging Google's extensive resources and research capabilities [2][4] - The latest version, Gemini 3, is reportedly performing well on various benchmarks, indicating strong model quality [4] Development and Infrastructure - The company has focused on improving infrastructure to integrate AI capabilities into its products efficiently, with plans to roll out Gemini features across various services, including Gmail [5] - There is an ongoing debate about the path to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), with some believing that scaling existing models may suffice while others argue for the need for significant scientific breakthroughs [6][9] Market Dynamics - Concerns about an AI bubble exist, particularly regarding startups that secure substantial funding without proven products [10][11] - Despite some areas potentially being overvalued, there are numerous successful applications and use cases in the AI sector [11] Future Outlook - The likelihood of a major technological revolution that reduces the need for processing power is considered low, with current trends indicating that increased computational resources are necessary for training and deploying AI models [12][13] - The impact of AI on the job market is still uncertain, with expectations that new opportunities will arise, particularly for creators and professionals who adapt to new tools [14][15]

在移动操作系统领域博弈了十余年后，Android和iOS已经越来越有"趋同进化"的征兆了。比如Android 正变得越来越封闭，虽然谷歌嘴上说"侧载不会消失"，可实际操作却是一点点在收紧侧载的权限。 01 日前，谷歌Play Store开发者体验产品管理总监兼首席产品讲解员Matthew Forsyth在社交平台上确认，一 套关于侧载的"高阻力"安装流程即将上线，这一新系统并非对侧载功能的限制，而是一个"责任层"。高 级用户仍可选择"跳过验证直接安装"，但未来侧载安装将面临更大的操作阻力，旨在确保用户了解通过 侧载安装应用的风险。 简而言之，未来的Android系统尽管依然可以通过应用商店之外的渠道获取应用，比如APK文件，但用 户将被迫进行一套复杂而繁琐的流程，以向谷歌证明自己具有应对未知风险的能力。当然，如果不是 Android开发者社区穷追猛打，或许如今的这个权宜之计可能都不会有。 关于侧载的"高阻力"流程其实是谷歌对于Android开发者社区的妥协，并放弃了开发者身份信息验证计 划。此前在去年夏季，谷歌方面突然宣布从2026年开始，所有要在Android设备上分发应用的开发者都 需要完成身份信息注册， ...

2026 年 01 月 23 日 通信行业 2026 年度投资策略 聚焦 AI：算力降本向光而行，应用落地网络先行 glmszqdatemark 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 推荐 维持评级 [Table_Author] | 分析师 张宁 | | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590523120003 | | | 邮箱： | zhangnyj@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 崔若瑜 | | 执业证书： S0590525110072 | | | 邮箱： | cuiruoyu@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 谢致远 | | 执业证书： S0590525110073 | | | 邮箱： | xiezhiyuan@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 范宇 | | | 执业证书： S0590525110074 | | | 邮箱： | fanyu@glms.com.cn | | 研究助理 | 朱正卿 | | 执业证书： S0590125110083 | | | 邮箱： | zhuzhengqing@glms.com.cn | 相 ...

作者 | 高允毅 "没有，从来都没有安心的时候。" 在 2026 年达沃斯世界经济论坛，DeepMind 创始人、Google DeepMind CEO 德米斯·哈萨比斯，用这句话形容过去三到四年的谷歌。 外界一度流行的"谷歌慢半拍"的言论，在他看来是一个彻底的误解。事实上，在这段时间里，谷歌的 AI 团队几乎一直处于红色警报状态。他本人长期保 持着每周 100 小时、一年 50 周的工作强度，把一家万亿美元体量的科技巨头，硬生生拉回到创业公司的战时节奏。 他并不认为 DeepSeek 构成真正意义上的"危机"，也直言西方舆论夸大了其算力效率优势，这背后仍依赖西方模型蒸馏。在他看来，中国公司极其擅长追 赶，但是否能率先打开下一代技术前沿，仍有待时间验证。而 现代人工智能行业所依赖的约 90% 的突破性技术，都是谷歌研发的。 但他特别表扬了 字节跳动，给出了一个极具分量的评价：字节跳动距离技术前沿，大约只差 6 个月，而不是 1–2 年。 也正是在这样的状态下，谷歌迎来了 Gemini 3 的发布，被哈萨比斯视为"重回行业最前沿"的关键节点。 在接受彭博社记者 Emily Chang 的专访时，他罕见地系统性拆 ...

以下文章来源于字母AI ，作者苗正 字母AI . 聚焦前沿科技，抢先看到未来。 来源 | 字母AI（ID:faceaibang） 作者：苗正 刚发布Cowork的Anthropic又要融资了。知情人士透露，这家公司正在敲定一轮250亿美元的巨额融资，距离上次融资仅仅过了两个多月。 为什么Anthropic如此迫切地需要资金？ 原因很简单，2026年AI大厂之间的竞争，已经不再是模型参数和跑分了，开发者体验和Agent能力转而成为了新贵。 例如，智谱首席科学家唐杰此前表示，随着DeepSeek横空出世，Chat范式的探索已经基本结束，因此公司决定押注coding。 谁能掌握住程序员，谁就能赢得胜利。 Anthropic固然很厉害，Y Combinator 2026的数据显示，Claude Code市场占有率高达52%，横扫所有对手。 而且他们只需要4个程序员，仅用10天的开发周期，就能拿出Cowork这种既成熟，还完整封装的产品，无疑是坐稳了宝座。 但谷歌不可能坐视不管，这家AI巨头即将和Anthropic在Vibe Coding领域短兵相接。 有意思的是，这次谷歌所扮演的角色，不再是霸主，而是一个挑战者。 内 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alphabet is well-positioned for 2026, but this does not guarantee solid returns for investors as expectations have reset higher following a strong performance in 2025 [1][2] Group 1: AI and User Experience - AI has been successfully integrated into Alphabet's services, enhancing user experience, but the challenge lies in converting this engagement into revenue [4] - Generative AI changes user interactions, leading to faster answers and reduced clicks, which may decrease traditional ad inventory and alter commercial intent [5] - There is a potential scenario where user engagement remains stable, but revenue per user stagnates, leading to slower economic expansion than investors expect [6][7] Group 2: Google Cloud Performance - Google Cloud has made significant progress, particularly in enterprise AI workloads, but profitability has not kept pace with revenue growth [9][10] - Despite healthy revenue growth driven by AI demand, margins may not scale meaningfully due to intense competition and high infrastructure costs [11] - If Cloud remains capital-intensive without significant margin improvement, it could lead to lower shareholder payoffs, although it would not indicate a collapse [12] Group 3: Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Alphabet's aggressive investment in AI infrastructure is strategically sound, but it carries risks related to capital intensity and delayed returns [13] - Heavy capital expenditure could suppress free cash flow growth longer than expected, leading to a shift in market sentiment if returns do not materialize [14][15] - The concern is not about balance-sheet stress, as free cash flow was $74 billion in Q3 2025, but rather about changing perceptions that could compress valuation multiples [15] Group 4: Overall Risks and Investor Implications - The combined risks of AI monetization, cloud margin expansion, and capital expenditure could limit upside potential for Alphabet, even if operational performance remains strong [16] - Alphabet is expected to perform well operationally, but shareholder returns may fall short of expectations due to higher performance benchmarks [17] - The primary risk for investors is not disruption but the potential failure to convert operational improvements into faster earnings and free cash flow growth [18]

Group 1 - The CEO of Google DeepMind, Demis Hassabis, expressed surprise at OpenAI's early introduction of advertisements in AI chatbots, indicating that monetization through ads has been a cautious topic of discussion within Google [1][2] - Hassabis noted that while ads are a core revenue source for Google, DeepMind is not under pressure to make hasty decisions regarding advertising in AI chatbots [1][2] - He emphasized the complexity of integrating ads into AI assistants, as users expect to trust their assistants, raising questions about how advertising would function in this context [1] Group 2 - Users have shown significant aversion to ads in AI conversational settings, with OpenAI previously attempting to recommend applications during chats, which was perceived as intrusive [2] - Hassabis highlighted the fundamental differences between chatbots and search products, stating that user intent is clear in search scenarios, making ad integration more natural, whereas chatbots serve as digital assistants [2] - DeepMind is committed to a scientific and cautious approach in its development, stating that it will not make impulsive decisions due to short-term pressures [2]

哈萨比斯表示，谷歌"目前没有任何计划"在其人工智能聊天机器人中投放广告，但该公司将密切关注用 户反馈。（思瀚） 哈萨比斯还表示，尽管广告对谷歌的核心业务至关重要，但他的团队并没有感受到来自这家科技巨头的 压力，要求他们在广告方面做出"仓促"的决定。 据此前报道，OpenAI 于近期宣布将开始测试广告。"我有点惊讶他们这么早就涉足广告领域，"哈萨比 斯说道，"广告本身没什么错，但在助手领域，如果你把聊天机器人看作是旨在提供帮助的助手，随着 它们变得越来越强大，理想情况下它们会成为一种为个人服务的科技。那么问题就来了，广告如何融入 这种模式？你想信任你的助手，那么这该如何实现呢？" 来源：环球网 【环球网科技综合报道】1月23日消息，据TechCrunch报道，谷歌DeepMind首席执行官德米斯·哈萨比斯 表示，他对OpenAI已在其人工智能聊天机器人中引入广告感到"惊讶"。 ...

Core Insights - The company has made significant advancements in quantum computing, which is gaining traction as a high-growth area alongside artificial intelligence [1][5] - Investors can choose between pure play quantum companies or established tech giants like Alphabet, depending on their investment strategy [2] - Alphabet is highlighted as a key player in quantum computing, offering both innovation and security for investors [5] Company Overview - Alphabet is widely recognized for its Google Search and Google Chrome, which are major revenue sources through advertising [6] - The company is also experiencing substantial growth in its Google Cloud segment [6] - Alphabet's revenue and profit are projected to remain in the billions annually, supported by its strong track record and long-term prospects [7] Quantum Computing Developments - Alphabet has developed a quantum chip named Willow, which addresses critical error challenges in quantum computing [9] - The Willow chip significantly reduces errors as quantum systems scale, marking a notable achievement in the field [9] - In late 2024, Alphabet demonstrated that its quantum hardware could outperform a supercomputer by running a verified algorithm [10] - Continued advancements in quantum computing may lead to new revenue streams for Alphabet, enhancing its overall business model [10]