证券研究报告 量子计算新范式，加速算力新革命 电子行业 强于大市（维持） 证券分析师 杨钟 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525080001 陈福栋 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524100001 2026年3月7日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 投资要点 1 量子计算尚未实用化落地，纠错是关键。量子计算是以量子比特为基本运算单元，利用量子叠加、干涉、纠缠等量子特性进行信息处理 的计算新范式。与经典计算中"比特"只能以确定性方式表示0或1不同，"量子比特"可同时表示|0>和|1>的叠加态。在特定场景下， 量子计算可实现对经典计算的指数级加速。当前，量子计算处于前期探索的关键阶段，构建逻辑量子比特进行量子纠错是推动量子计算 实用化落地的重要举措。 量子计算多种技术路线并存，尚未收敛。量子计算技术路线包括超导、离子肼、中性原子、光量子、半导体等，哪种技术路线能最终胜 出仍未有定论，技术路线尚未收敛。超导量子计算核心是利用约瑟夫森结构建二能级系统，是业界研究最多、发展最快的路线之一，海 外Google、IBM等巨头以及国内"祖冲之"、"本源悟空"等系列均采用超导路线；离子肼是通过囚禁离子链构建二能级系统，保真度高、 相干 ...

Group 1 - Google initially adopted the motto "Don't be evil" in 2004, which has since evolved to a more complex stance regarding military contracts, notably pulling out of Project Maven [1] - Google has developed a technology called Tightbeam lasers for improving interoperability in satellite and communication systems, which has significant military applications [3] - The Office of Naval Research awarded Aalyria, a Google spinoff, a $7 million contract to develop ultra-fast, hyper-secure connectivity for military assets, showcasing the technology's potential in modern electronic warfare [4] Group 2 - Aalyria was spun off from Google in 2022, retaining a minority stake, and recently raised $100 million in funding, achieving a valuation of $1.3 billion, thus becoming a unicorn company [5]

Core Insights - Alphabet's CEO Sundar Pichai has received a new equity pay package that ties part of his compensation to the performance of Waymo, the company's robotaxi service, for the first time [1][2] - The total potential value of the new package could reach up to $692 million if performance targets are met [1] Group 1: Compensation Structure - The new equity package includes incentives based on the performance of Waymo and Wing Aviation, with Pichai potentially earning up to $260 million linked to Waymo's per-unit value over three years [2][3] - Pichai will also receive equity units tied to Wing, which could be worth up to $90 million, contingent on the company's per-unit value over the same period [3] - The package maintains Pichai's base salary at $2 million, unchanged since 2020, and includes performance stock units (PSUs) that could be valued at up to $252 million based on Alphabet's total shareholder returns relative to the S&P 100 [5] Group 2: Strategic Implications - Tying Pichai's compensation to Waymo and Wing indicates that Alphabet views these entities as valuable, scalable businesses rather than mere experimental projects [3] - The board's decision to incentivize Pichai to focus on developing these later-stage Other Bets aligns with the interests of Alphabet and its stakeholders [3] - Waymo has driven over 200 million autonomous miles and expanded its commercial service to 10 markets, while Wing plans to expand to over 270 Walmart stores by 2027 [4][5] Group 3: Time-Based Compensation - There is a time-based equity component in Pichai's package that could award him $84 million if he remains with the company for the next three years [6]

Core Insights - The Pentagon has mandated that defense vendors must certify they are not using Anthropic's chatbot Claude for Department of Defense work, impacting major cloud providers like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft [1][3] Group 1: Company Actions - Amazon has invested $8 billion in Anthropic, whose Claude AI operates on AWS Bedrock [1] - Alphabet, Google's parent company, holds a $3 billion stake in Anthropic and has expanded its partnership by providing access to up to 1 million custom tensor processing units (TPUs) [2] Group 2: Regulatory Context - Anthropic refused to comply with the Department of Defense's requested terms of use, leading to a federal ban on the use of its technology by federal agencies as instructed by President Donald Trump [3] - Despite the ban, Anthropic's models were reportedly used by the U.S. in a military operation against Iran [3] Group 3: Market Position - Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are identified as leading providers of cloud infrastructure, which positions them strategically in the market despite regulatory challenges [1]

Summary of Greater China Semiconductors Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Greater China Semiconductors - **Outlook**: Bullish on Cloud, Memory, and Optical sectors, with a focus on accumulating investments ahead of the GTC (Graphics Technology Conference) [1][3] Key Insights - **Long-term Demand Drivers**: - **Top Investment Ideas**: - **Overweight (OW)**: - Memory stocks benefiting from AI: Winbond, Nanya Tech, APMemory, GigaDevice, Macronix - AI/datacenter semiconductors: Aspeed, WT Micro - CPO (Chip-on-Panel): TSMC, ASE, AllRing, KYEC, FOCI - **Equal Weight/Underweight (EW/UW)**: ASMedia, Realtek, Parade, Novatek, Himax, WPG, Nuvoton, Goodix, Phison [8] - **Market Dynamics**: - **Tech Inflation**: Anticipated price elasticity affecting demand for tech products, with rising costs in wafers, OSAT, and memory creating margin pressures for chip designers in 2026 [8] - **AI Cannibalization**: AI is expected to replace some human jobs, leading to demand weakness. The semiconductor supply chain is prioritizing AI semiconductors over non-AI semiconductors, contributing to shortages in T-Glass and memory [8] - **China AI Demand**: DeepSeek is driving inferencing AI demand, raising questions about the sufficiency of domestic GPUs. The potential shipment of Nvidia H200 could impact the domestic GPU supply chain [8] Valuation Comparisons - **Foundry, Back-end, Memory, IDM, and Semi Cap**: - Various companies were analyzed with metrics such as P/E ratios, EPS growth, and market cap. For example, TSMC has a target price of 2,088.0 TWD with a current price of 1,865.0 TWD, indicating a 12% upside [10] - **Memory Sector**: - GigaDevice (603986.SS) has a target price of 414.0 CNY, with a current price of 279.1 CNY, indicating a 48% upside. Winbond (2344.TW) has a target price of 155.0 TWD, with a current price of 104.0 TWD, indicating a 49% upside [10][14] Additional Insights - **NAND and NOR Flash Supply**: - Anticipated shortages in NAND and NOR flash into 2026 due to increased demand from AI storage [21] - **Cloud Capital Expenditure**: - Major Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) such as Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta saw a 64% year-over-year increase in capital expenditure in Q4 2025, with an estimated total cloud capex spending of nearly US$685 billion in 2026 [42][50] - **AI Inference Demand**: - Monthly tokens processed by major CSPs indicate growing demand for AI inference, suggesting a robust market for AI-related semiconductors [61] - **TSMC Capacity Expansion**: - TSMC is expected to expand its CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity to 125kwpm by 2026 due to strong AI demand, having already doubled its capacity in 2025 [67][72] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the optimistic outlook for the semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of AI and cloud computing advancements.

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the leadership change at Xibei, with former CEO Dong Junyi returning to the position after the resignation of Jia Guolong due to significant business volume decline [4][5]. - Xibei has announced that due to a substantial decrease in business volume, many headquarters employees will need to be on standby or leave the company [5][7]. - The number of employees at Xibei's headquarters, originally over 500, is expected to drop to around 200 after the layoffs [7]. Group 2 - ByteDance has initiated its largest-ever intern recruitment drive, aiming to hire over 7,000 interns globally, with a focus on R&D, product, and AI fields [6][8]. - The recruitment plan includes over 4,800 offers for R&D positions, accounting for more than 60% of the total [8]. - The overall conversion rate for these intern positions is expected to exceed 50% [8]. Group 3 - The article mentions that the U.S. stock market indices collectively fell, with the Nasdaq down 1.59% and the S&P 500 down 1.33% [11]. - International crude oil futures saw a significant increase, with WTI crude oil futures rising 12.21% to $90.9 per barrel, marking a weekly increase of over 35% [11]. Group 4 - The Ministry of Commerce reported that the cross-border e-commerce import and export scale reached 2.75 trillion yuan [14]. - The revenue share of Chinese online dramas in the global market has reached 90%, with app downloads accounting for 80% globally [15]. Group 5 - Toshiba is restructuring its substantial debt with the goal of returning to the public market by the fiscal year 2028 [17]. - Pfizer China announced the approval of a new GLP-1 receptor agonist for long-term weight management in adults [18]. Group 6 - New Hope reported a decline in sales revenue from commodity pigs, amounting to 1.327 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.42% [20]. - Lao Fengxiang's net profit for the fiscal year 2025 was reported at 1.755 billion yuan, down 9.99% year-on-year [21]. Group 7 - Wanbangde expects a net profit growth of 985.40% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2026, driven by a strategic shift from generic to innovative drugs [22]. - Quince is in talks for financing that could double its valuation to over $10 billion [23].

记者｜刘雪莹 见习记者林芊蔚 编辑｜张楠 北京时间3月7日，美股三大指数集体收跌。本周美股三大股指均录得跌幅，道指累计下跌约 3%，标普500指数累跌约2%，纳指累跌1.24%。 欧洲主要股指集体收跌，德国DAX30指数跌1.21%；英国富时100指数跌1.22%；法国CAC40 指数跌0.94%；意大利富时MIB指数跌0.99%。 | 道琼斯工业 | 纳斯达克指数 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 47501.55 | 22387.68 | 6740.02 | | -453.19 -0.95% -361.31 -1.59% -90.69 -1.33% | | | | 美国科技七巨头 中概科技龙头 | | 中国金龙 | | 61487.23 | 3737.72 | 6961.05 | | -1091.32 -1.74% +65.24 +1.78% +47.62 +0.69% | | | | 道琼斯期货 | 纳斯达克100期 | 标普500期货 | | 47480 | 24661.25 | 6740.00 | | -503 -1.05% -388.25 -1.55% -95.25 ...

years after Epic wins unanimously in this jury verdict, suddenly, yes, Epic and Google come out together and say, "We're settling this." These companies are already past the point where any company would usually settle here. The judge has already issued a permanent injunction here that says, "Hey, Google, you cannot do all of these things anymore. You cannot make these, you know, these secret deals that uh incentivize companies to bring games exclusively to Android. You cannot have all these apps on this pl ...

Google CEO Sundar Pichai gestures to the crowd during Google's annual I/O developers conference in Mountain View, California, on May 20, 2025.Google said it will continue offering Anthropic's artificial intelligence technology for clients, excluding for defense work, a day after Microsoft issued a similar statement to customers. The announcements from two of the three leading cloud infrastructure vendors follow the Defense Department's official designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk. "We understand ...

Alphabet's/Google's ( GOOGL ) ( GOOG ) share price has been stagnating since my previous 'Strong buy' rating despite various bullish developments. The fact that all the Magnificent 7 stocks demonstrate share price weakness in 2026 despite strongComing from an IT background, I have dived into the U.S. stock market seven years ago by managing portfolio of my family. Starting managing real money has been challenging for the first time, but long hours of mastering fundamental analysis of public companies paid o ...