古根海姆将Alphabet的目标价从210美元上调至280美元，维持"买入"评级。(格隆汇) ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry, driven by the AI industry's growth and the need for enhanced computing power [1][3] - The AI industry is experiencing a robust development phase, transitioning from cloud-based models to edge intelligence and embodied intelligence, supported by domestic substitution policies and continuous technological advancements [3][15] Economic Indicators - CPI and PPI data show marginal improvement, with September 2025 CPI rising 0.1% month-on-month and declining 0.3% year-on-year, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [2][9] - The PPI remained flat month-on-month for two months, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, indicating a narrowing of the decline due to policies aimed at reducing internal competition [2][9] Trade Performance - China's import and export values showed positive growth in September 2025, with total trade value increasing by 8%, exports rising by 8.4%, and imports growing by 7.5% year-on-year, reflecting strong performance in high-tech products and advanced manufacturing [10][12] Semiconductor Sector - TSMC reported Q3 2025 revenue of $33.1 billion, a 10.1% increase quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong demand for advanced processes, with 74% of wafer revenue coming from 7nm and below [12] - Cambricon Technologies reported a staggering year-on-year revenue increase of 1332.52% in Q3 2025, reaching 1.727 billion yuan, with a net profit of 567 million yuan, showcasing significant improvement in performance [12] AI Infrastructure Investment - Major AI companies, including Nvidia, OpenAI, and Google, are accelerating investments in data centers, with Nvidia and partners planning to invest $40 billion in acquiring data center giant Aligned [13] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the "Millisecond Computing" initiative to enhance computing infrastructure, aiming for sub-millisecond connectivity and access in urban networks [13] Energy Sector - The demand for energy storage and power equipment is expected to grow, with Nvidia exploring mid-voltage rectifier applications and developing solid-state transformers to meet the increasing power needs of AI [14][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the resonance between supply and demand sides to escape the internal competition dilemma, particularly in emerging industries like photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles [15] - Attention should be given to the AI industry chain, including chips, servers, liquid cooling, power supplies, and downstream AI applications, as domestic AI continues to evolve in performance and efficiency [15]

陈骁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001、BWH863 郝博韬 投资咨询资格编号：S1060521110001 证券研究报告 海外策略周报: 经济数据推迟发布，联储降息预期升温 证券分析师 2025年10月21日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 ※ 核心观点 2 • 海外方面，本周市场风偏呈现结构性变化。美股走强、美元及美债收益率回落，港股调整。其中，本周全球股市多数上涨， MSCI全球股指上涨1.20%。美股涨幅较大，道琼斯工业指数上涨1.56%、标普500指数上涨1.70%、纳斯达克指数上涨2.14%。 10年期、2年期美债收益率分别下跌3bp、6bp至4.02%、 3.46%；美元指数下跌0.27%至98.56；COMEX黄金、ICE布油分别上 涨5.76%、下跌1.21%。港股方面，海外政策变化、市场风偏调整，港股走弱。恒生科技下跌8.0%，跌幅居前，恒生中国企业指 数、恒生指数、恒生综合指数、恒生港股通分别下跌3.7%、4.0%、4.1%、4.0%。 • 海外宏观层面，美国经济数据推迟发布，美联储降息幅度可能加大。1）美国经济数据推迟发布。由于美国联邦政府"停摆"， 美国劳工部原定15日公 ...

道指涨1.12%，纳指涨1.37%，标普涨1.07%。苹果涨近4%，iPhone需求刺激投行上调评级。谷歌、亚马 逊涨超1%，Meta涨超2%，特斯拉涨超1%，甲骨文跌近5%。 (本文来自第一财经) 来源：第一财经 ...

Thousands of plaintiffs’ complaints, millions of pages of internal documents and transcripts of countless hours of depositions are about to land in US courtrooms, threatening the future of the biggest social media companies.The blizzard of paperwork is a byproduct of two consolidated lawsuits accusing Snap Inc.’s Snapchat; Meta Platforms Inc.’s Facebook and Instagram; ByteDance Ltd.’s TikTok; and Alphabet Inc.’s YouTube of knowingly designing their platforms to addict users – allegedly resulting in youth de ...

How Small Business Can Survive Google’s AI Overview https://t.co/uITCWGSvTn ...

6个AI模型、各给1万美元实盘厮杀，DeepSeek暂为交易之王 从上周六（10月18日）开始，美国人工智能研究实验室nof1.ai在其"Alpha Arena"（阿尔法竞技场）平台上举办了一场活动——给六个顶级模型一万美元的真 金白银，让它们自主交易加密货币，而且并非模拟盘。每个模型只能独立交易，面对一模一样的提示词、一致的市场、一致的时间戳。这是 AI 之间最公平 的擂台赛。 GPT-5、Claude Sonnet 4.5、DeepSeek Chat V3.1、Gemini 2.5 Pro、Grok 4、Qwen3 Max，六位大模型"选手"正式开战。 几天内6个AI 选手已经拉开了差距，风格各不相同，排名情况是： DeepSeek 大部分时候是第一，不愧是量化起家的，Grok 4 凭借激进风格偶尔能反超一下 DeepSeek，咬的很近。Claude 是妥妥的一位理性脑，分析到位但就 是有拖延症，最惨的是 Gemini 2.5 Pro ，深度套牢，一路向下。 【观网财经丨智能早报10月20日】 截至北京时间周一傍晚，DeepSeek的持仓总市值接近1.4万美元，收益率约40%，最高时一度接近1.5万美元， ...

Group 1: Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. Senate failed to pass a government funding bill, resulting in the continuation of the government shutdown that began on October 1 [1][2] - The funding bill aimed to extend government funding until November 21 but did not meet the required 60 votes, receiving only 50 in favor [2] - The shutdown has led to the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) initiating forced unpaid leave for approximately 1,400 employees, marking the first such occurrence since the agency's establishment in 2000 [4][5] Group 2: Economic Data and Federal Reserve - The government shutdown has caused a "data vacuum," complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to assess economic conditions, particularly regarding inflation and employment risks [6][7] - Financial markets expect the Federal Reserve to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00% during the upcoming policy meeting [7] - The average monthly non-farm employment growth from June to August was only 29,000, significantly below pre-pandemic levels, raising concerns about the labor market's true state [7][8] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock markets experienced significant gains, with major indices rising over 1%, driven by optimism from quarterly earnings reports and improved risk appetite [3][10] - Apple Inc. saw its stock price reach a record high of $262.24, with a market capitalization of $3.89 trillion, surpassing Microsoft to become the second-largest company by market value in the U.S. [13][15] - The iPhone 17 series has shown strong early sales, outperforming the iPhone 16 series by 14%, indicating a positive trend for Apple's future sales [15]

（一）重要市场新闻 1、美股高开高走，三大指数均涨超1%，纳指涨1.37%，道指涨1.12%，标普500指数涨1.07%；大型科 技股普涨，苹果涨约4%，创历史新高；奈飞涨超3%，英特尔、Meta涨超2%，特斯拉、谷歌、亚马逊 涨逾1%，微软小幅上涨；英伟达小幅下跌。纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨2.39%，中概股多数上涨，爱奇艺 涨超8%，蔚来涨近5%，金山云涨超4%，阿里巴巴涨近4%，哔哩哔哩、百度涨近2%。 1、10月20日，可重复使用火箭朱雀三号首飞箭顺利完成加注合练及静态点火试验，进入首飞关键准备 阶段，为今年正式入轨发射及一级回收开展各项准备。朱雀三号是我国面向大型星座组网任务，自主研 制的一款大运力、低成本、可重复使用的液体运载火箭，可在执行轨道发射任务后自主高精度返回，在 回收场实现软着陆并重复使用。近期我国商业航天卫星密集发射，北京时间2025年10月19日11时33分， 力箭一号遥八运载火箭在东风商业航天创新试验区发射升空，将搭载的巴基斯坦遥感卫星02星、中科卫 星03星和04星共3颗卫星顺利送入预定轨道。 点评：近期我国航天领域频繁传来震撼消息，商业航天高密度的发射节奏，显示出我国卫星互联网建设 ...

Core Insights - The head of internet research at Evercore ISI, Mark Mahaney, discusses the current state of consumer internet stocks, noting a major rerating and a dramatic rally over the past three years [2] - Mahaney identifies Meta as a strong compounder with a reasonable valuation, while Amazon is highlighted as a potential dislocated stock despite recent outages [3][4] Group 1: Market Trends - The consumer internet sector has experienced significant growth, with notable entry points earlier in the year for companies like Uber and Google [2] - There is a scarcity of dislocated high-quality stocks in the internet and tech space currently, with few trading significantly below their recent highs [7] Group 2: Company Performance - Amazon Web Services (AWS) has faced outages, which could impact its competitive position against rivals like Google Cloud and Azure, although Mahaney believes the recent outage will not have a long-term effect [8][10] - Major tech companies, including Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta, have seen improvements in revenue and operating income per employee, attributed to aggressive headcount management and AI deployment [10] Group 3: Valuation Insights - Mahaney emphasizes the importance of fundamentals, focusing on revenue and operating income per employee, which he refers to as return on AI spend [9][10] - Valuations for companies like Google and Meta are considered reasonable, trading at a modest premium to the market, contrasting with the high PE multiples seen during the dot-com bubble [11][12]