Core Insights - Google stock (Alphabet) has shown significant rallies, achieving over 30% gains in less than two months multiple times, particularly in 2010 and 2024, with two instances of over 50% rallies in 2025, indicating potential for considerable upside for investors [2] Catalyst Summaries - **Catalyst 1: Cloud AI Backlog Converting to Revenue and Margin Expansion** - Google Cloud is expected to accelerate revenue growth beyond consensus estimates of 30%+, with operating margins projected to rise toward 30% from 23.7%. The cloud backlog increased by 46% sequentially to $155 billion in Q3 2025, and operating income soared 85% year-over-year [9][10] - **Catalyst 2: Gemini-Driven Monetization in Core Services** - The Gemini app has exceeded 650 million monthly active users, with search queries tripling in a quarter. New revenue sources are anticipated from premium AI features in Search and Workspace, enhancing user engagement and ad pricing power [9][10] - **Catalyst 3: Expansion of Aggressive Capital Return Program** - There is a significant increase in buyback authorization or dividends expected, which will boost EPS growth and attract new investors. The trailing twelve months free cash flow reached $73.6 billion, and a recent dividend program initiation indicates a shift in capital allocation strategy [9][10] Financial Performance - Revenue growth for Alphabet is reported at 13.4% for the last twelve months, with a three-year average of 11.0%. The company has a free cash flow margin of nearly 19.1% and an operating margin of 32.2% for the last twelve months. The stock trades at a P/E multiple of 32.4 [10]

行情回顾 本周市场主线围绕两条线索展开：一是特朗普政府对美联储主席鲍威尔的调查传闻及其引发的"美联储独立性"担忧，反复冲击美元与利率预期；二是伊朗相 关地缘政治消息频繁反转，主导金银油的剧烈波动。跨资产表现呈现出明显的"避险—回吐—再定价"节奏。 美股表现出板块轮动、结构性上涨，风险资产整体仍偏向稳定，资金从高估值科技流向价值和周期性资产。科技股（尤其芯片和AI板块）出现调整，小盘 股及周期性板块表现更佳，推动罗素2000指数创下新高。 投行观点精选 劳埃德银行称，美联储或成美国就业市场疲软的替罪羊。瑞银认为，对美联储独立性的担忧，可能会促使其立场更加偏向鹰派。 高盛指出，料美联储仍将依据数据作出决策，不因调查压力而偏颇。大摩指出，通胀并未升温但仍高于目标，不足以支持美联储1月降息。 美元指数周初在政治不确定性冲击下明显承压，但随后受到美国经济数据好于预期、市场降低近期降息预期的支撑。尽管存在对联储独立性担忧等短线扰 动，美指本周仍整体走强，有望实现连续第三周上涨。截至发稿，美指报99.25、 贵金属本周先扬后抑，避险属性短暂发挥后让位于美元和风险性资产回暖。中东地缘政治紧张和对美联储政策不确定性的避险买盘推 ...

行 业 研 究 传媒 2026 年 01 月 16 日 英伟达 GPU VS 谷歌 TPU：哪些产业链竞争激烈？ 投资要点： 一、先进制程+封装：台积电领先，CoWoS 产能紧缺 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 英伟达和谷歌均高度依赖台积电 CoWoS 先进封装。台积电 CoWoS 是当前 AI 芯片产业链最关键的"卡脖子"环节。英伟达和博 通（代工谷歌 TPU）将竞争台积电 CoWoS 产能分配，并直接影响英伟 达和谷歌的 AI 芯片出货能力。据台积电 2025Q4 法说会，由于 AI 需 求强劲， 2026 年资本支出预计在 520 -560 亿美元，同比 2025 年增 长 27%~37%。 台积电因 CoWoS 产能满载，将部分先进封装订单转给外包封测 大厂安靠（Amkor）与日月光（ASE）等 OSAT 厂商，缓解产能压力。 其中英伟达表示在 2026-2029 年会与安靠合作，扩大在美国的产能布 局。2025 年 10 月，安靠宣布其位于美国亚利桑那州的先进封装测试园 区扩大投资至 50 亿美元，未来达到 70 亿美元，2028 年初投产，成为 首个美国大批量先进封装工厂。 三星、英特尔积极提升先进制程能 ...

不过这笔交易的本质，并非外界认为的 "谷歌接管 Siri"，而是一种类似"代工"的合作模式。 简单来说，谷歌的 Gemini 模型将扮演 "老师" 的角色，在训练环节帮助苹果优化和强化其自研的 Apple Foundation Models。而最终在用户设备上运行、与 用户直接交互的，依然是苹果自己的模型。 从效果来看，苹果借助谷歌在大模型领域的顶尖技术，快速补齐了生成式 AI 的能力短板，让新版 Siri 能够处理更复杂的语义和指令。另一方面，苹果依 然可以守住自己的隐私底线，让用户的数据存储在本地或苹果私有云里，谷歌完全接触不到任何用户隐私数据，只是通过授权模型赚取技术服务费。 这其实和苹果选用台积电芯片的逻辑是一样的，核心产品的主导权始终牢牢掌握在自己手中。 在科技行业，从来没有永恒的敌人，只有永恒的利益。 2026 年初，就在华尔街还在为各大AI公司的股价波动提心吊胆时，苹果决定与谷歌联手，将谷歌Gemini大模型，接入新一代Siri和Apple Intelligence战 略。该消息一出，直接让谷歌股价飞涨，也有很多人认为苹果已经在 AI 竞赛中 "认输"，但抛开情绪化的标签来看，这次的合作其实是两 ...

——2026 年计算机行业策略报告 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 行业创新加速推进，市场表现位居中游 [Table_Title] AI 商业化加速推进，量子科技前景广阔 [Table_Main] 行业研究|信息技术|软件与服务 证券研究报告 计算机行业年度策略报告 2026 年 01 月 16 日 2025 年，计算机（申万）指数上涨 18.24%，上证指数上涨 18.41%， 沪深 300 上涨 17.66%，创业板指上涨 49.57%，科创 50 上涨 35.92%。 计算机板块跑赢沪深 300，跑输创业板指、科创 50 指数、上证指数， 涨幅位居申万行业第 14 位。从技术演进角度来看，AI 技术不断创新 演进，DeepSeek 以远低于海外大模型厂商的成本实现了先进的性能， 模型成本不断降低带动 AI 技术平权，并推动大模型技术在千行百业的 实际应用，token 消耗量实现成倍增长；资本市场方面，摩尔线程、沐 曦股份等国产 GPU 厂商成功上市，智谱、MiniMax 等国产头部大模 型厂商 2026 年初在香港上市，AI 全栈的国产替代正在如火如荼地推 进。此外，量子科技、商业航天等细分 ...

Core Insights - The stock market experienced significant gains during President Trump's administration, with the S&P 500 closing up 16% in 2025, marking the third year of a bull market [1] - Trump's tax policy, particularly the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), has been a major driver of corporate investment trends, leading to a surge in stock buybacks [3][8] - The TCJA reduced the corporate income tax rate from 35% to 21%, the lowest since 1939, which has incentivized companies to invest in share repurchases [9][10] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose by 16% in 2025, following a turbulent period related to Trump's trade policies [1] - During Trump's first term, major indices like the Dow Jones and Nasdaq saw substantial increases, with the S&P 500 rising by 70% [2] Impact of Tax Policy - The TCJA has led to a significant increase in corporate buybacks, with S&P 500 companies on track to repurchase an estimated $1.02 trillion in shares for 2025 [12] - Prior to the TCJA, quarterly buyback activity for S&P 500 stocks was between $100 billion and $150 billion, which surged to between $200 billion and $250 billion post-TCJA [13] Corporate Buybacks - In Q3 2025, S&P 500 companies bought back $249 billion worth of their own stock, down from a record $293.5 billion in Q1 2025 [12] - Apple has been a leader in share repurchases, buying back over $816 billion since 2013, with $90.7 billion spent in fiscal 2025 [17] - Alphabet ranks second in buybacks among S&P 500 companies, having repurchased $342.4 billion over the last decade [18] - Nvidia has also engaged in significant buybacks, totaling $115.1 billion over the last decade, with a recent annual buyback approaching $52 billion [21] Conclusion - The combination of Trump's tax policies and the resulting corporate strategies has led to a robust environment for stock buybacks, significantly impacting the financial landscape of major companies like Apple, Alphabet, and Nvidia [22]

2025年伊始，投资者纷纷质疑谷歌能否在人工智能竞赛中跟上ChatGPT开发商OpenAI的步伐。然而到年 底时，Alphabet的股价创下了自2009年以来的最佳表现。 谷歌重拾了在人工智能领域的底气，这很大程度上要归功于DeepMind——这家英国企业是谷歌在2014 年以约4亿英镑收购的。 DeepMind创始人兼首席执行官德米斯・哈萨比斯称该公司是谷歌人工智能研发的"核心引擎"，并表示 面对当前"白热化的竞争环境"，谷歌已进行相关调整，以实现人工智能产品的快速落地。 哈萨比斯表示，他现在"每天"都会与谷歌首席执行官桑达尔・皮查伊沟通，这一细节凸显出两位高管正 紧密协作，以加速技术创新的进程。 "所有人工智能技术均由我们团队研发……随后推广应用到谷歌旗下各类优质产品中。"哈萨比斯这样说 道。 "过去几年里，我们一直在搭建这样的技术根基。这不仅包括研发人工智能模型，还涉及……构建谷歌 整体的技术基础设施，确保这些技术成果能够以极快的速度推向市场。" 对于谷歌而言，这一点或许至关重要，因为新的一年里，谷歌不仅要与OpenAI继续抗衡，还要面对一 众竞争对手的挑战，这其中就包括亚马逊、Perplexity以及 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape of patents in the field of "physical AI," which integrates humanoid robots and artificial intelligence, highlighting China's leading position in this sector [2][4]. Group 1: Patent Competitiveness - China ranks first globally in the comprehensive strength of patents related to physical AI, followed closely by the United States [2]. - The analysis was conducted with the assistance of LexisNexis, focusing on the integration of robotics and AI technologies [2]. Group 2: Leading Companies - The top three companies in terms of comprehensive patent strength in the physical AI sector are Baidu (4126 points), Huawei (3645 points), and Tencent (3043 points), all from China [5][6]. - Samsung Electronics from South Korea ranks fourth with 2734 points, followed by NVIDIA from the United States with 2154 points [5]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis - Chinese companies, while leading in quantity, still face challenges in patent quality compared to American firms like Intel, NVIDIA, and Alphabet, although Huawei is reportedly nearing their level [6]. - Japan's highest-ranked company in this field is Fanuc, which is positioned at 13th place [6].

Market Overview - The global Cognitive Analytics Market was valued at USD 7.90 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 81.46 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 33.99% from 2026 to 2033 [1] - The U.S. Cognitive Analytics Market was valued at USD 2.17 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 22.03 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 33.61% from 2026 to 2033 [3] Growth Drivers - The market is expanding due to increasing demand for data-driven decision-making, real-time insights, and the growing acceptance of AI and machine learning across various industries [1][3] - Factors contributing to the U.S. market growth include high AI adoption, advanced digital infrastructure, robust business expenditures, and cloud integration [3] Segmentation Analysis By Enterprise Type - Large Enterprises held a 61% market share in 2025, driven by large data volumes and complex business processes, while small and medium enterprises are expected to grow the fastest from 2026 to 2033 due to lower entry barriers from cloud-based solutions [4] By Application - Customer Management accounted for 31% of the market share in 2025, focusing on enhancing customer experience and retention, while Fraud Detection and Security is anticipated to grow the fastest from 2026 to 2033 due to increasing cyber threats [5] By End-User - The BFSI sector dominated with a 28% share in 2025, relying heavily on advanced analytics for fraud prevention and risk assessment, while Retail is expected to experience the fastest growth from 2026 to 2033 as companies leverage cognitive analytics for demand forecasting and personalized promotions [6][7] By Deployment - Cloud deployment led with a 64% market share in 2025 and is projected to grow at the fastest rate from 2026 to 2033, attributed to its scalability and cost efficiency [8] Regional Insights - North America held the largest revenue share of approximately 38% in 2025, benefiting from early AI adoption and a strong presence of major technology providers [9] - The Asia Pacific region is expected to grow at the fastest CAGR of about 15.22% from 2026 to 2033, driven by rapid digital transformation and increasing AI investments [10] Market Trends - There is a rising enterprise focus on data-driven decision-making using AI-powered insights, which enhances operational efficiency and competitive advantage through real-time analysis of consumer behavior and market trends [11] Key Players - Major companies in the cognitive analytics market include Google LLC, Oracle Corporation, IBM Corporation, Microsoft Corporation, and Amazon Web Services, among others [13]

Core Insights - Alphabet's stock performance improved significantly in 2025, marking its best year since 2009, as the company regained its competitive edge in AI, particularly through its DeepMind division [3][10]. Company Strategy and Developments - DeepMind, acquired by Google in 2014, is described as the "engine room" of Google's AI efforts, with CEO Demis Hassabis emphasizing the close collaboration with Google CEO Sundar Pichai to innovate rapidly in a highly competitive environment [4][11]. - In 2023, Google merged its Google Brain research division with DeepMind, which laid the groundwork for the success of its AI assistant, Gemini [7]. - The launch of Gemini 2.5 in March 2025 and Gemini 3 in November 2025 received positive feedback for their speed and performance, indicating a successful turnaround in Google's AI product offerings [10][11]. Competitive Landscape - The AI sector is characterized by intense competition, with companies like OpenAI, Amazon, and others vying for market share. Hassabis noted that many industry veterans consider this the most competitive environment they have ever witnessed [5][6]. - Google faced challenges in keeping pace with OpenAI after the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, which highlighted initial product missteps in its AI tools [8][9]. Industry Trends and Perspectives - Hassabis expressed that while some parts of the AI industry may be experiencing a bubble, AI is poised to be the most transformative technology ever invented, akin to the internet during the dot-com bubble [12][13]. - Concerns were raised about unsustainable valuations in private markets, with significant seed funding rounds occurring despite a lack of developed products [15]. - The company aims to position itself advantageously regardless of whether the AI market continues to grow or faces a downturn, leveraging its established business and AI integration [16].