来源：国际投行研究报告 雅诗兰黛下跌19% 增长恐慌拖累美股再次下跌！ 疲软的劳动力市场数据和对AI的忧虑进一步拉低美国股市，标普500指数年内转跌。软件股也再次大幅 下跌；比特币下跌13%，拖累Strategy股价下跌19%。 标普500指数信息技术板块下跌1.7%。微软(Microsoft)下跌5%，Salesforce回落4.7%。这轮跌势继续冲击 半导体公司，包括Advanced Micro Devices，该公司收盘下跌3.9%；以及英伟达(Nvidia)，该公司收盘下 跌1.4%。 Alphabet股价下跌0.5%，此前这家谷歌(Google)的母公司表示，今年可能进行最高可达1,850亿美元的人 工智能相关资本投资。高通(Qualcomm)发布的疲软预测拖累了这家芯片制造商的股价，其股价下跌了 8.5%。 雅诗兰黛(Estée Lauder)股价下跌19%，在标普500指数成份股中跌幅最大，此前这家美妆集团表示，预 计今年与关税相关的不利因素将使其利润减少约1亿美元。发动机制造商康明斯(Cummins)股价下跌 11%，创下自2020年3月新冠疫情爆发之初以来的最大单日百分比跌幅。 投资者涌入公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented AI investment plans by major US tech companies are reigniting market fears of a bubble, leading to significant stock sell-offs despite strong earnings reports [5][6]. Group 1: Investment Plans and Market Reactions - Amazon, Google, and Microsoft collectively lost $900 billion in market value after announcing their capital expenditure plans, which total $660 billion by 2026, a 60% increase from $410 billion in 2025 and 165% from $245 billion in 2024 [5][6]. - Amazon's capital expenditure for this year is projected to reach $200 billion, exceeding expectations by $50 billion, which has led to an 11% drop in its stock price [6]. - Microsoft experienced the most significant decline, with an 18% drop in stock price following its earnings report, despite a 26% increase in cloud revenue to $51.5 billion [6][7]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and AI Return Cycles - The rising capital expenditures signal that realizing the full potential of AI may require more time and resources, testing investor confidence in long-term returns [8]. - Analysts express concerns that the increased capital spending indicates a longer timeline for AI strategies to yield attractive returns, leading to a pause in investor enthusiasm for tech stocks [8][14]. - The Nasdaq index has dropped 4% over the past five days, reflecting a shift in market sentiment towards tech stocks [8]. Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Apple reported record quarterly revenue of $144 billion, benefiting from strong iPhone sales, while its capital expenditure decreased by 17% to $2.4 billion, contrasting sharply with its peers [10][11]. - Apple's collaboration with Google to enhance its AI capabilities through a pay-as-you-go model has allowed it to minimize capital expenditures while still gaining AI benefits [11][12]. - Nvidia, as the highest-valued public company, is expected to face a turbulent market when it announces its earnings, as investors seek signs that the high capital expenditures will soon translate into revenue growth [13].

NASDAQ : GOOGL Alphabet Today's Change Alphabet's modest sell-off after its Q4 update presents a great buying opportunity. Picky, picky. That's my take on investors selling Alphabet (GOOG 0.60%) (GOOGL 0.20%) stock after the company reported stellar fourth-quarter results on Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2026. The good news about the Google parent's surging revenue and profits was overshadowed by its higher projected spending on artificial intelligence (AI). Alphabet's share price fell moderately on Thursday amid conc ...

亚马逊、谷歌和微软在过去一周公布季度财报后，合计市值蒸发9000亿美元。这三家公司连同Meta计 划在2026年投入6600亿美元用于数据中心和专用芯片——这一金额超过以色列的GDP，较2025年的 4100亿美元激增60%，更是2024年2450亿美元的165%。 投资者对这一庞大的资本支出计划感到震惊，即便这些公司的云业务实现了强劲的营收增长。 AllianceBernstein集中型美国增长基金负责人Jim Tierney表示："资本支出规模令人震惊。" 美股科技巨头合计计划在2026年投入6600亿美元用于AI基建，这一金额超过以色列的GDP，同比激增 60%。亚马逊、微软及谷歌因资本支出规模惊人且微软高度依赖OpenAI，导致三家公司市值蒸发9000 亿美元。相比之下，苹果以极低资本开支实现营收新高，成为唯一幸免于抛售潮的赢家。 美国科技巨头创纪录的AI投资计划正在重新点燃市场对泡沫的恐慌。尽管多数公司交出了强劲的财 报，但投资者对"惊人"的资本支出规模感到不安，担心这些投入正在超越新技术的盈利潜力，导致科技 股遭遇集体抛售。 这波抛售潮表明，市场对AI投资回报周期的耐心正在耗尽。唯一幸免的是苹果， ...

Core Insights - The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has significantly impacted various industries, particularly through the introduction of products like DALL-E2 and ChatGPT by OpenAI, which have gained public attention since late 2022 and early 2023 [1] - The latest earnings season for the US stock market highlights the commentary from technology companies regarding AI's influence on their industries and business operations [2] Alphabet (Google) - The Gemini app has reached 750 million monthly active users, up from 650 million in Q3 2025, with increased user engagement following the launch of Gemini 3 in December 2025 [3][4] - Alphabet leads in AI model portfolios across text, vision, and image-to-video, with Gemini 3 Pro achieving the fastest adoption rate in the company's history, processing three times the daily tokens compared to its predecessor [3][6] - Google Cloud's backlog grew by 55% sequentially to $240 billion in Q4 2025, driven by strong demand for AI products, with revenue from AI solutions built by partners increasing nearly 300% year-over-year [7][10] - Google Cloud's revenue grew 48% year-over-year in Q4 2025, with operating margin increasing to 30.1% from 23.7% in Q3 2025 [23][24] - Alphabet's management anticipates significant capital expenditures of $175 billion to $185 billion in 2026 to enhance AI compute capacity and meet customer demands [25][26] AI and Advertising - Gemini is enhancing advertising quality and tools, allowing for better query understanding and ad relevance, with advertisers creating 70 million creative assets in Q4 2025 [19][20] - The introduction of Direct Offers in AI Mode aims to provide exclusive offers to users ready to purchase, indicating a shift towards monetizing AI-driven user experiences [22] Waymo - Waymo raised its largest investment round to date, surpassing 20 million fully autonomous trips and expanding its service to new markets, including Miami and plans for the UK and Japan [17] Amazon - AWS experienced a 24% year-over-year growth in Q4 2025, with a backlog of $244 billion, up 40% year-over-year, driven by increased demand for AI workloads [34] - Amazon's Bedrock service, which facilitates the use of multiple AI models, has reached a multi-billion dollar annualized revenue run rate, with customer spending increasing by 60% sequentially [35] - The launch of NovaForge allows enterprises to integrate their proprietary data into the pre-training phase of AI models, enhancing customization [38] AI Agents and Commerce - Amazon's AI shopping assistant, Rufus, has expanded its capabilities, enabling it to research products and make purchases, with 300 million customers using it in 2025 [44] - The management believes that agentic commerce will enhance consumer experiences, with customers using Rufus being 60% more likely to complete a purchase [44] Industry Trends - Companies are increasingly adopting AI to improve operational efficiency and customer engagement, with successful SaaS companies deeply integrating AI into their workflows [30][31] - The demand for AI compute capacity remains a significant concern for companies, with management focusing on addressing supply chain constraints and optimizing investments [32]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that major US tech companies plan to invest a record $660 billion in AI infrastructure by 2026, which exceeds Israel's GDP and represents a 60% increase from $410 billion in 2025 and 165% from $245 billion in 2024 [2][3][6] - The massive capital expenditure plans have led to a significant market reaction, with Amazon, Google, and Microsoft collectively losing $900 billion in market value following their quarterly earnings reports [3][4][6] - Apple's strategy of minimal capital expenditure has allowed it to avoid the sell-off, reporting record revenue of $144 billion, while its capital spending decreased by 17% to $2.4 billion in the last quarter [10][11] Group 2 - Investors are increasingly anxious about the long-term return on investment from AI, as rising capital expenditures suggest that achieving AI's full potential may require more time and resources [8][9] - The market sentiment has shifted, with the Nasdaq index dropping 4% over five days, reflecting concerns about the sustainability of tech stocks amid rising capital expenditures [9][13] - Despite strong revenue growth, companies like Microsoft and Amazon face pressure to demonstrate that their significant spending will yield attractive returns, as investor patience wanes [9][10] Group 3 - Nvidia, as the highest-valued public company, is expected to face a turbulent market when it releases its earnings report, with investors looking for signs that the escalating capital expenditures will translate into revenue growth [13][14] - Meta has also announced plans to double its capital expenditures to $135 billion, but its stock gains were short-lived amid broader market sell-offs [13][14] - Overall, the combined annual revenue growth of the four companies reached 14% to $1.6 trillion, which is insufficient to alleviate the prevailing market pessimism [13]

美国就业咨询机构查林杰－格雷－克里斯马斯公司（Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.）5日发布的数据 显示，美国雇主1月裁员人数为10.81万人，大幅高于前月的3.55万人，为2025年10月以来的最高水平， 也是2009年以来1月份裁员人数最高的一次。 查林杰－格雷－克里斯马斯公司工作场所专家兼首席营收官安迪·查林杰（Andy Challenger）表示，整 体上，一季度裁员数量高，但1月份裁员数量高意味着大多数裁员计划已经在2025年年底确定，显示雇 主对2026年的前景变得没有那么乐观。 美国劳工部5日上午发布的职位空缺和劳动力流动调查报告（JOLTS）显示，2025年12月份美国就业市 场职位空缺数量为654.2万个，低于市场共识预期的724.5万个，前月数值则从715万个向下修正为692.8 万个。 新华财经纽约2月5日电（记者刘亚南）由于最新公布的就业数据疲软和科技股抛售继续，纽约股市三大 股指5日低开，盘中弱势震荡，收盘时纽约股市三大股指均下跌。 美国劳工部当日盘前发布的数据显示，美国上周首次申领失业救济的人数为23.1万，高于市场共识预期 的21.2万和前一周的2 ...

2026 年 2 月 6 日 陈伟光 S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 罗炜斌 S0340521020001 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： luoweibin@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 超配（维持） 电子行业双周报（2026/01/23-2026/02/05） 行 业 谷歌业绩超预期，上游多个材料调涨 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 电子行业 SAC 执业证书编号： 行情回顾及估值：申万电子板块近2周（01/23-02/05）累计下跌6.81%， 跑输沪深300指数5.68个百分点，在申万行业中排名第31名；板块2月累 计下跌4.70%，跑输沪深300指数3.94个百分点，在申万行业中排名第29 名；板块今年累计上涨5.31%，跑赢沪深300指数4.44个百分点，在申万 行业中排名第18名。估值方面，截至2月5日，SW电子板块PE TTM（剔除 负 ...

Core Viewpoint - The record AI investment plans by major US tech companies are reigniting market fears of a bubble, leading to significant stock sell-offs despite strong earnings reports from most companies [1] Group 1: Investment Plans and Market Reactions - Amazon, Google, and Microsoft collectively lost $900 billion in market value after announcing plans to invest $660 billion in data centers and specialized chips by 2026, a 60% increase from $410 billion in 2025 and 165% from $245 billion in 2024 [1][2] - Amazon's capital expenditure for this year is projected to reach $200 billion, exceeding expectations by $50 billion, which contributed to an 11% drop in its stock price [2] - Microsoft experienced the most significant decline, with an 18% drop in stock price following its earnings report, despite a 26% increase in cloud revenue to $51.5 billion [2][3] Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Concerns - Rising capital expenditures signal that the realization of AI commitments may require more time and funding, testing investor confidence in long-term returns [3] - Analysts express concerns that Microsoft and Amazon must prove that their increased spending will yield attractive returns, as fears of an AI bubble resurface [3] - The Nasdaq index, heavily weighted with tech stocks, fell 4% over the past five days, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [3] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Apple's strategy of minimal capital investment has positioned it as a clear winner, reporting record quarterly revenue of $144 billion, while its capital expenditure decreased by 17% to $2.4 billion [5] - Apple's collaboration with Google to enhance its AI capabilities through a pay-as-you-go model has allowed it to benefit from AI advancements without significant capital outlay [5] - Nvidia, as the highest-valued public company, is expected to face a turbulent market when it releases its earnings report, as investors seek signs of a shift in spending related to AI [6]

2月5日晚间，全球市场大溃败，美股三大指数大跌，道指跌约600点，纳指跌近2%。 科技股集体下跌。 | 了 筛选 | | 最新价 : | 涨跌幅 : □ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 高通 | N | 137.61 | -7.58% | | us QCOM | | | | | 甲骨文 | | 140.00 | -4.55% | | US ORCL | | | | | 谷歌-C | | 318.32 | -4.51% | | us GOOG | | | | | 亚马逊 | 1 | 222.79 | -4.38% | | US AMZN | | | | | 帯電时 | | 191.47 | -4.00% | | us CRM | | | | | 美国超威公司 | | 192.70 | -3.74% | | US AMD | | | | | 特斯拉 | | 391.17 | -3.66% | | US TSLA | | | | | 微软 | | 400.13 | -3.41% | | US MSFT | | | | | Applovin Corporation | | 375.85 | ...