2025年中国城区经济高质量发展研究报告

Core Insights - The report focuses on the high-quality development of urban economies in China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, analyzing 904 urban districts and highlighting significant growth trends and structural changes in urban economies [1][6][10]. Economic Growth - From 2020 to 2024, the GDP of urban districts in China increased from 45.2 trillion yuan to 57.2 trillion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of approximately 6.1% [1][22]. - The number of "billion-yuan urban districts" rose from 111 to 171, with 16 new additions in 2024, indicating a significant enhancement in the scale of urban economies [1][22]. Regional Disparities - The report notes a slight alleviation of the "East Strong, West Weak" pattern, with 58 districts in the East, 19 in the West, 22 in the Central region, and 1 in Northeast China. However, the "South Strong, North Weak" trend remains pronounced, with 84 districts in the South and 16 in the North [1][10]. Development Trends - Six major trends are expected for the top 100 urban districts during the "14th Five-Year Plan": 1. Innovation will shift from technology catching up to original leadership 2. Industry will transition from scale expansion to high-end value chain refinement 3. Spatial development will evolve from single-point growth to networked collaboration 4. Ecology will transform from emission reduction constraints to zero-carbon industries 5. Openness will change from foreign trade dependence to rule-based leadership 6. Society will progress from basic security to quality living [1][11][10]. Policy Recommendations - The report suggests promoting the integration of "science and technology + industry," advancing the "strong foundation leap chain" in advanced manufacturing, and enhancing the "people-city integration" for spatial reconstruction [1][11][19]. Innovation and Investment - As of 2024, there are 299,764 high-tech enterprises located in urban districts, with 8,424 specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises, primarily concentrated in Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces [27][29]. - Fixed asset investment in urban districts showed a recovery trend, with an average growth rate rebounding from 1.9% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024 [30][31]. Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in urban districts increased from 18.57 trillion yuan in 2020 to 23.10 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting strong consumer resilience and potential [30][31]. Industrial Clusters - Nearly 50% of the 100 small and medium-sized enterprise characteristic industrial clusters identified by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are located in urban districts, indicating a robust industrial cluster development [31][33]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes that urban districts will continue to play a crucial role in driving high-quality economic development in China, serving as a vital force in building a more resilient and dynamic modern economic system [25][29].