Bank of America(US:BAC) 智通财经网·2025-08-15 00:03Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Bank of America warns the dollar may face adverse conditions if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates amid rising annual inflation, a situation not seen in nearly two decades [1] - Bank of America foreign exchange strategist Howard Du indicates that if the Fed resumes a rate-cutting cycle, any cuts in 2025 may occur against a backdrop of rising inflation, which is historically rare [1][2] - The last time actual policy rates were suppressed was from the second half of 2007 to the first half of 2008, during which the Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by approximately 8% [2] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that the dollar depreciation began before the Fed's rate cuts and continued afterward, similar to the current situation [2] - The Fed is currently facing economic uncertainty due to President Trump's tariff policies and a weakening labor market, with traders expecting an 85% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September [2] - Bank of America estimates that by the end of this year, the year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will reach about 2.9%, higher than mid-2025 levels, even if monthly CPI growth remains around 0.1% [2] Group 3 - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has declined by approximately 1.3% in August and about 8% year-to-date, marking the worst start since 2017 [3] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, sensitive to Fed policy, has dropped by about 50 basis points year-to-date [3] - Du and his colleagues are bullish on the euro against the dollar, targeting a rise of about 3% to 1.20 by the end of this year [2]